Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 30, 2021

July 30, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chopper 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Irish Lighted Road 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Fast One 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Last Spring 2.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Wellfield 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Pachi 4.50 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Three Birds 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Be Authentic 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Kuringai 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 4 Little Chick 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Way too Smarte 2.50 SCRATCH
5 3 Satiate 3.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ioya Again 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Andreas 6.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Land Mark Deal 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Iwillpersevere 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Tuff Attack 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Temper Tantrum 3.50 3.8 7-1
7 6 Coming Up Aces 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 My My Munny 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Fine Cotton 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Sharp Hero 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Joan’s Way 4.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Colorofacloud 3.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Hippie Cowgirl 3.50 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Winning Quality 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 New Rules 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 I Juana Hero 20.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Backside Beauty 1.60 4.3 8-1
2 2 Ozette 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Me too Mo 3.50 SCRATCH
7 4 Bobbie too Too 10.00 5 9-1
3 2 Nice and True 2.50 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cachaco 10.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Lord Bolston 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Tea After Ballet 10.00 2.6 5-1
2 1 Chocolate Bunny 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Delft Blue 1.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Rocket Ride 4.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gagoots 1.80 SCRATCH
6 2 Zarmae 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 3 Dick the Bruiser 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Semi Charmed Day 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Link to Destiny 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Zawadi 8.00 SCRATCH
5 1 Draw the Line 6.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Eye of the Cat 1.40 1.9 4-1
2 2 Bourre’ Trick 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Musical Theatre 8.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Admiral Returns 4.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 New Dawn 8.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Mommas Boy Otis 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Rocket Hotshot 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 New Year Surprise 4.00 5.7 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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3rd - 0:00
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4th - 13:23
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3rd - 4:42
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3rd - 5:13
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4th - 15:00
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3rd - 1:54
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4th - 12:53
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4th - 11:23
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3rd - 5:21
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