July 29, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Road Game | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Easter Music | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diddley | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Will Knows | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nyoman | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Asesino | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | You Split Tens | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Sport | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Say No | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You’re Killin Me | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | President Elect | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Halo Hunter | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Deep Dish | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Mission | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Frost | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | U Can Do It | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fox Frey | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oooh Barracuda | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Journeyist | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purr Sea | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Runway Flair | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iggy Bigs | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rapid Fire Micky | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sassy Like Julia | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Future Perfect | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Zoffa | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Last Fact | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ol Grey Ghost | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Tuff | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | A P Blazing Green | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Poquito Man | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss High N Mighty | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sway to Go | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s So Cali | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fox Able Charlie | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Dams Atitude | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Holy Oak | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready At Midnight | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Holy Image | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Scent | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fine Cotton | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gold Incense | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Ben | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Lay | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fifty One Ninety | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Morethansoultitle | 1.40 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King Zion | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hatchet Creek | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Packed House | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Smiling Silas | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pocket Player | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mister Charming | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Not Very Gentle | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dramatic Kitten | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cosmic Treasure | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Overpraise | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Andreas | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Upham | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.