Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, July 28, 2021

July 28, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 The Mean Queen (IRE) 1.20 1.5 3-1
2 2 Fast Car 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 The Happy Giant 6.00 4 7-1
3 3 A Silent Player (IRE) 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 City Dreamer (IRE) 8.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Bodes Well (IRE) 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Arch My Boy (GB) 10.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Madison’s Luna 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Rocking the Boat 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Yodel E. A. Who 2.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Clench 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Fox Red 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Rejected Again 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ocala Dream 1.80 1.8 3-1
8 7 Barrage 4.00 2 4-1
9 8 Devious Mo 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Step Dancer 2.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Dreamer’s Disease 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Gator Bite 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 It’s Gravy 12.00 5 9-1
3 3 Tales of Saratoga 30.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Market Alert 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Quasar 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 2 Alpine Queen 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Miss Alex 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Cazilda Fortytales 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 6 Scott Alaia 15.00 7.7 14-1
4 3 Sweet Larissa 15.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Hollywood Gina 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 East Wing 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Air Cavalry 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Timbuktu 2.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Regal Empire 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Raw Courage 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 El Veinticuatro 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Achilles Heel 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Toga Dancer 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Resilient Courage 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Heart of Savino 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Stop the Spread 30.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Khali’s Dream 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Boriman 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bointheback 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spettro 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Kingdom On Paws 50.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cody’s Wish 1.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Absolute Courage 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Pipeline 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Beatbox 5.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Vindictive 10.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 I Am the Law 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Unexpected (JPN) 30.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Zuzudini 30.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Lucky Brody 50.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Speaktomeofsummer 6.00 3 6-1
6 3 Tamahere (FR) 1.60 3.1 6-1
9 6 Witez 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 4 Sweet Melania 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 5 I’llhandalthecash 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 1 Hogans Holiday 30.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Foxtail 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hungry Kitten 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Passing Out 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Package 3.00 4 7-1
7 6 Noble Emotion 5.00 5 10-1
6 5 Gypsy King 8.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Colton’s Command 5.00 7.6 14-1
10 8 Unitedandresolute 8.00 8.1 15-1
11 9 King James 12.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Yes and Yes 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ampersand 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tuggle 1.60 SCRATCH
14 14 Life Changer 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Jake Rocks 3.00 SCRATCH
5 4 By George 12.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Charmed (GB) 15.00 11.3 21-1
8 7 Ballydooley (GB) 15.00 11.5 22-1
12 10 Amsden 15.00 14.4 27-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Honorable Miss H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Bell’s the One 1.40 3.1 6-1
1 1 Ain’t No Elmers 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Lake Avenue 4.50 3.4 6-1
6 5 Don’t Call Me Mary 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Reagan’s Edge 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Honey I’m Good 6.00 4.5 8-1
8 7 Miss Mosaic 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Truth Hurts 30.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Sadie Lady 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Centurion 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Prayer Book 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Boldish 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Caribbean Gold 5.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Bunker Hill 8.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Flight to Paradise 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Readyseekgo 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Romantic Man 20.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Declareatruce 10.00 5.6 10-1
11 11 Empire Attraction 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Private Code 30.00 8 15-1
13 13 Loaded Joe 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Digital Software 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Value Chain 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bold Victory 1.60 SCRATCH
8 8 Theregoesmymiracle 50.00 11.9 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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