July 25, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Trade Secret | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tap N Glo | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tout Ensemble | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Openthegate | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shanghai Essence | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | S Oh S | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lady Milagro | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dream Lith | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Money in the Bank | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lookin for Trouble | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Dr. Blute | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Dr. Duke | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Luna’s in Charge | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Destiny | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Scotty Brown | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Veterans Beach | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Our Troubadour | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Panster | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wild William | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Him She Kisses | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Firefly | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | La Victoria | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Tapple Cider | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Pop the Bubbly | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Epona’s Dream | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hit the Nail | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Marvelous Maude | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Acushla | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Saluki | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Caumsett | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 4 | Excellent Timing | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Bronx Bomber | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Amundson | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Binkster | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Moonachie | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Power Up Paynter | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of the Union | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 10 | Bella Domenica | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Lime | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Summer At the Spa | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Lucky Latkes | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | Air Cavalry | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Miss Mamba | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | High School Crush | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Herald Angel | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Appreciate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ginger Kitty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Defy Expectations | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sassy Melissa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Little Dutch Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 5 | Carly Hustle | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 14A | 8 | Entwine (IRE) | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Stretchthestory | 30.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Four Dawn | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shared Future | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gal in a Rush | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demandsrespect | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Interpret | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemieux | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Knowing Glance | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Roundabout | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Kaely’s Sister | 0.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Thief of Hearts | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cadeau de Paix | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lot of Honey | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Polished Gem | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | April Antics | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Raffinity | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Master of Hope | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Dack Janiel’s | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Yankee Division | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Chris and Dave | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 16 | 7 | Winston’s Chance | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Locally Owned | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 4 | You’re to Blame | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Falkirk | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Ready | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Olympico (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Value Engineering | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Forty Under | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Conviction Trade | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | City Man | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Winning Factor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cavalry Charge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | No Word | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shuvee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gold Spirit (CHI) | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crystal Ball | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dunbar Road | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Royal Flag | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Horologist | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liberty M D | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Antoinette | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mubarmaj | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Legit | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Easy Shot | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Villainous | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Someday Jones | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O Shea Can U See | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Lincoln | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Respect for All | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.