July 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Time Break | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zidikai | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Antecedence | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arbitrary | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cookin Roses | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoodwink | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fudge Brownie | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | City Fun | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Super Ready | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s Wandaful | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Union Park Gal (IRE) | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Exchange | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Pitaman | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spinster Road | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Willow Ridge | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Creal Wonder | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crankshaft | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Hero | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Renegade Bob | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ms Sassy Atitude | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sister Ruler | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz Susan Ann | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bourbon Rebellion | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jolina | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Atlantic | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willow Moon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Tre Lee Divine | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Canary Islands | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Finnegan (IRE) | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Oncewewerebrothers | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mutakddim Road | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Offlee Fun | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Landofthepharaohs | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greeleys Ice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Quiet Prayer | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Little Toot | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Julio Tutwiler | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Andthethunderrolls | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Delft Blue | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cold Birdie | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kit Kowaleski | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Off to the Beach | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Skip the Smalltalk | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Lady Brexit | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hero Alexandra | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brunella | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Mongolia | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sense of Self | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drinks On Me | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kingsbury Dream | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rapid Transit | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Embarrassing | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Sniper Kitten | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | My Bariley | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | In Love (BRZ) | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dyn O Mite | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Star of Kodiak | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Kick | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Job Security | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Stallone | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.