Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 25, 2021

July 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Time Break 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Zidikai 2.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 Antecedence 3.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Arbitrary 3.50 5.3 10-1
3 2 Cookin Roses 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Hoodwink 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fudge Brownie 6.00 1.4 3-1
3 2 City Fun 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 3 Super Ready 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 She’s Wandaful 4.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Union Park Gal (IRE) 3.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Divine Exchange 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Pitaman 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 5 Spinster Road 2.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Willow Ridge 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Creal Wonder 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Crankshaft 3.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 High Hero 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Renegade Bob 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ms Sassy Atitude 10.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Sister Ruler 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Tiz Susan Ann 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Bourbon Rebellion 2.50 4 8-1
3 2 Jolina 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Lady Atlantic 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Willow Moon 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Tre Lee Divine 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Canary Islands 20.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Finnegan (IRE) 1.60 4.1 8-1
6 5 Oncewewerebrothers 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Mutakddim Road 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Offlee Fun 2.50 5 9-1
7 6 Landofthepharaohs 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Greeleys Ice 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Quiet Prayer 3.00 1.1 2-1
9 8 Little Toot 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Julio Tutwiler 12.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Andthethunderrolls 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Delft Blue 2.50 4.4 8-1
8 7 Cold Birdie 20.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Kit Kowaleski 20.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Off to the Beach 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Skip the Smalltalk 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Lady Brexit 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Hero Alexandra 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Brunella 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Good Mongolia 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Sense of Self 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Drinks On Me 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Kingsbury Dream 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Rapid Transit 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Embarrassing 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Sniper Kitten 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 5 My Bariley 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 3 In Love (BRZ) 1.40 4 8-1
1 1 Dyn O Mite 4.50 5.4 10-1
3 2 Star of Kodiak 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Lemon Kick 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Job Security 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Stallone 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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