July 22, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Redicean (GB) | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gibralfaro (IRE) | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baltimore Bucko (GB) | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Galway Kid (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | French Light (FR) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cite | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Mad | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rudy Rod | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Recidivist | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Point of Humor | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rickys Revenge | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moonshiningbright | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pregame | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Viradia | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7B | 6 | Sirenic | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mongolian Humor | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stefanie On Fleek | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gentle Annie | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Persian Queen | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Violent Trick | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8B | 8 | Forever Changed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Kiki | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Courageous Girl | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stunning Munnings | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Venus | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tenderness | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pendolino | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Sophia | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Expand the Map (IRE) | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Pizza Bianca | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hail To | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fishers | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bali Belle | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hope Over Fear | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Office Etiquette | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Roundabout | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | My Girl Steve | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Miss Interpret | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Gal in a Rush | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Derrynane | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quick Power Nap | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saratoga Kisses | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rooski | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Tiny Dancer | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enjoy Summer | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Captainsdaughter | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quaysadilla | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oak Loves a Fight | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cara’s Nickels | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Trinity Titoli | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | My Alluring Lady | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Quantitativbreezin | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Traffic Lane | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Chloe Rose | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cause to Dream | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Red Pepper Grill | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Irresistible Girl | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Bustinmygroove | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Tony’s Girl | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nicky Scissors | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Gagliano | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cat’s Pajamas | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lovely Lucky | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mia Martina | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Here Comes Jackie | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lagom | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5A | 3 | Birdie Queen | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Emilia’s Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Singita Dreams | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Played Hard | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ice Princess | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love and Love | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Portilla | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Longpants Required | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Iaintfraidanoghost | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Subsidiary | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Social Whirl | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orma | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Stella Mars | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Path Less Taken | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Undetectable | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | New York Supreme | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fastelle | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ob La Di | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Love’s Misery | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Exact Change | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sassy Belle | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dorothy’s the Boss | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.