Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 22, 2021

July 22, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tinderella 1.40 1.2 2-1
1 1 First Squadron 8.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Kenai Cool 3.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Superstar Diva 1.80 3.4 6-1
5 5 Mountain Melodies 8.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Godsgift 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Oxbow’s Ruby 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Varsity Flygirl 1.20 2.9 5-1
1 1 Special Conquest 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 The More I Burn 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fort Ridge 4.50 2.4 5-1
6 6 Driver Dan 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Tale of the Nile 1.20 3.4 6-1
3 3 Allegiance 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Kearny County 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Call the Colonel 10.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Woke Up to Aces 2.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Juju’s Specialgirl 2.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Go Stormin Girl 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Rank and File 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Apollo U Anywhere 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 U. S. Currency 4.00 6 11-1
7 7 Lady Atlantic 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 King Tito 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 6 Bee Happy Attack 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Burl 2.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Flashy Richie 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Girlolamo’glory 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Givin Up None 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Beealea 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frontier Charlie 12.00 2 4-1
2 2 White Mist 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Battle Creek 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Westward Look 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 War Lance 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Red Flag Alert 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Town Agenda 6.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zandrea’s 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Smack 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Windy City Girl 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Eye On the Finish 15.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Northern Alliance 3.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Simply Fast 12.00 5 10-1
1 1 White Lies 8.00 5 10-1
5 5 April’s Gem 8.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Joe Frazier 1.60 2.5 5-1
9 8 Oh Say (IRE) 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Smokey Harbor 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Draft Capital 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 2 Happy American 3.00 5 9-1
8 7 Mr. Universe 30.00 5.6 11-1
4 3 No Que No 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 1 Boca Boy 6.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Paddy’s House 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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