July 22, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tinderella | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Squadron | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kenai Cool | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mountain Melodies | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Godsgift | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oxbow’s Ruby | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Varsity Flygirl | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Special Conquest | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The More I Burn | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fort Ridge | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Driver Dan | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of the Nile | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Allegiance | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kearny County | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Call the Colonel | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Woke Up to Aces | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Stormin Girl | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rank and File | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Apollo U Anywhere | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | U. S. Currency | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Atlantic | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | King Tito | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bee Happy Attack | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Burl | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Flashy Richie | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Girlolamo’glory | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Givin Up None | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beealea | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Frontier Charlie | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | White Mist | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Battle Creek | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Westward Look | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | War Lance | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Flag Alert | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Town Agenda | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Zandrea’s | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smack | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Windy City Girl | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eye On the Finish | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Alliance | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Simply Fast | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | White Lies | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | April’s Gem | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Joe Frazier | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Oh Say (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smokey Harbor | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Draft Capital | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Happy American | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Universe | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Que No | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Boca Boy | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paddy’s House | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.