Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 18, 2021

July 18, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 New Rules 2.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 I Juana Hero 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Lady Magna 1.40 3.6 7-1
1 1 Angel’s Run 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Don’t Hold Queens 4.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Rejoice an Be Glad 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Triple Scout 3.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Sensible Myth 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Stopshoppingamy 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Field Letters 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Primary Cause 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Texas Rain 2.50 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gray Owl 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Piece of My Heart 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 O’Keeffe 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Lady Lawyer 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Compelling Smile 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Karak 3.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Upbeat Melody 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Better Think Twice 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Power Through 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Storm’s Reflection 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Nobel 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Clyde’s Green Go 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Debenture 6.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Kingdom’s Spirit 10.00 5 9-1
9 9 Absolute Chaos 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Radiant Castle 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Uncle Earl 3.50 3.4 6-1
6 5 Morriston 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Grand Hideaway 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Comiskey Park 2.50 4 7-1
5 4 Gemo Rain 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Givin Up None 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Paulette 10.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 She’s Hot Today 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Straight Up Smarty 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Wanna Have Fun 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Dance the Day Away 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Watchin the Wheels 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Present of Hero 4.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fade Away 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Antrim’s Giant 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Fleetway 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 And Won 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Half of Manhattan 4.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Baroque 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Christian C 3.50 6.9 13-1
8 8 Ruffolo 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Imagine Gold 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Locash 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Girls Count 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Lizqueenfluerdelis 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Valerie Valeski 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Missen the Point 20.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Fiddlershotpleasur 30.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Aka Lioness 6.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Couger 10.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Speak English 4.00 8 15-1
1 1 Bird Key 15.00 8.1 15-1
12 12 Share My Moon 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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