Sports from the Basement

Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 17, 2021

July 17, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Poseidon’s Kid 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Head for Business 3.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Just Ask Ethan 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Gone Somewhere 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Warrens Candy Man 2.50 3.5 7-1
8 8 By Moonlight 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Mizzen Power 20.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Gerlach’s 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Half Right 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Rocktillyoudrop 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Father O’Flaherty 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Goldeneyed 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Diva’s Finale 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Raging Waters 5.00 4 8-1
7 7 Winhappy 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 C’Mon Jenna 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Musical Gem 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 What in Blazes 1.80 1.4 3-1
7 7 Mob Boss 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Big Impact 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Sippin N Kissin 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Agador Spartacus 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Erebus 15.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Empire’s Fire 15.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Freedom’s Glory 20.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Fantail (GB) 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 California Kook 3.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Lalic (FR) 4.00 5.3 10-1
9 8 Cassie Belle 6.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Bye Bye Bertie 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Ellerslie Lace (FR) 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 England’s Rose 12.00 6.8 13-1
12 10 Ultimate Hy 8.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Del Mar Drama 15.00 8.3 16-1
8 7 New Heat 15.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Frose 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 So Much Happy 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Censorship 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Smash Ticket 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Desert Dawn 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ruby Ray 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Liam’s Dove 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Baby Steps 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Wetherly 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Valentina Ghada 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Half Past Twelve 20.00 6 11-1
10 9 Outlaw Daisy 30.00 8 15-1
11 11 Peanut Butter Cup 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ko Olina 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Pelican Way 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Drop Anchor 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Manitowish 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Twirling Derby 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Play the Wildcard 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Gates of Heaven 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Final Final 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Audace 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Floyd Moneymaker 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Suances Secret 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Luck of the Draw 4.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Antarctic 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Storm the Bastille (FR) 6.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Stage Ready 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 The Black Album (FR) 6.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 On a Spree 8.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 French Getaway 8.00 8 15-1
3 3 Palace Prince 12.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Erotic 15.00 9.8 18-1
12 12 Tizona 15.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Itsthattime 0.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Full of Luck (CHI) 15.00 10.3 20-1
10 10 Snazzy Dresser 15.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Brutto 5.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Silver Moon Road 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Established 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tizhotndusty 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Divine Armor 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Mr. Impossible 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Beyond Brilliant 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Ginobili 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Royal Insider 20.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Palace Coup 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Osunitas S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Brooke (CHI) 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Tapwater 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Sedamar 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Nasty 5.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Ippodamia’s Girl 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Candura 12.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Heathers Grey 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Dynasty of Her Own 12.00 8 15-1
8 8 She’s So Special 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – San Diego H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Royal Ship (BRZ) 1.80 2.8 5-1
6 6 Mo Mosa 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Express Train 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Rushie 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Kiss Today Goodbye 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Tripoli 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Magic On Tap 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Sheriff Brown 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Heywoods Beach 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mohawk King (IRE) 3.50 3.2 6-1
10 10 Lincoln Hawk (IRE) 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Spirit Maker 5.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 The Hulk (GB) 12.00 7.7 14-1
5 5 Nerves of Steel 8.00 8.2 16-1
9 9 Goldini 8.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Wyfire 8.00 8.9 17-1
12 12 Cherubic Factor 12.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Fuego Caliente 0.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Onenightstandards 0.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sensemaker 0.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mucho Del Oro 15.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Jimmy Blue Jeans 12.00 10.9 21-1
4 4 Barraza 15.00 11.8 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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