July 16, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shashashakemeup | 1.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Girolamo’s Attack | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Smooth B | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mihos | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gun It | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | T Loves a Fight | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Clear Humor | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arms an Armor | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Quick Return | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brew Pub | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Brown | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tamburro’s Sox | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reunion Tour | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Far Away Look | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Giacosa | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Classic Colors | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chocolate Cookie | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Timeless Journey | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Light in the Sky | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixie Cannon | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Courageous Girl | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Flaming Rouge | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ballacolla | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Angelou | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lisheen | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Now Yus Cant Leave | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fortuna | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Endless Front | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tekila | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Absolute Love | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yes I’m Evil | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seeds of Time | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Violent Trick | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Annika Gold | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mongolian Humor | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Viradia | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mizzen Air | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pecan Pattie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kant Hurry Love | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tough Street | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | November Rein | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Let Her Inspire U | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Classic Miss | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Saratoga Chrome | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rigby | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dufresne | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Amore Fire | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Succulent | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Curly Girl | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Trinity Titoli | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Miner’s Queen | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mused (GB) | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mumbai | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Too Sexy | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | American Goddess | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Rivendell | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Zia’s Song | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bay Jewel | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amendment Nineteen | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Spin a Yarn | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Madam Maclean | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Air Cavalry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Thief of Hearts | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Spicy Marg | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Patty H | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Easy to Bless | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Polished Gem | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kandy Ginger | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Malibu Luna | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Greatest Love | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Riding On a Winner | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bayshore Foxes | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Forbidden Apple S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Value Proposition (GB) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Delaware (GB) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sacred Life (FR) | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rinaldi | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Corelli | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Therapist | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Logical Myth | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sanctuary City | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Made You Look | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flying Scotsman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Baudi Moovan | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uncle’s Gem | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | U Should B Dancing | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fancy Feline | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kreesa La Wrote | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Raining Candy | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Monet | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Isle Storm | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Moment | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.