July 15, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Wagon Boss | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charlie’sarchangel | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hammerin Aamer | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flowers for Lisa | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ekhtibaar | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Playwright | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Revenio | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Lime | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grit and Glory | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Speedometer | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Microbiome | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Frosted Oats | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zmuda | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seduce | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prima Della | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Martini’s Amica | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pout | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Everyoneloveslinda | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Treason | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | St. Joe Louis (GB) | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | So Suave (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Point Me By | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Alley Oop Johnny | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Smile Bryan | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skyro | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gussy Mac (IRE) | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Banker | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Wudda U Think Now | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Life Changer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Lomu | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Gem Key | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Kemba | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Evidence Based | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Big Bad Diva | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Kerik | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Claddagh’s Run | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Come Storming | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hohohoho | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mopolka | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Alpha Babe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ocean Air | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Rose E Holiday | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Lady Scarlet | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Echo Zulu | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Solasta | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Repealing | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Outfoxed | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Texian | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rolin N Controlin | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Li Li Bear | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Martini Twist | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mommasgottarun | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Two Cent Tootsie | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alba’s Star | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Choose Happiness | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jazzy Lady | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kitten by the Sea | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Corey Scores | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Positive Skew | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Five Alarm Robin | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stefanie On Fleek | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sky Kitten | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Courageous Girl | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 4 | Arham | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12A | 11 | Ajaaweed | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Business Model | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern District | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dust Devil | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yearn for Victory | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Claytnthelionheart | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dack Janiel’s | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bourbon Thunder | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Camp Hope | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My First Grammy | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Tip | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Quick Call S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Pal | 0.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Jaxon Traveler | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kentucky Pharoah | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Rebel Posse | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Omaha City | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Second of July | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fire Sword | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Fauci | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mr Sippi | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mainstay | 3.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Birdie | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Velvet Sister | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Eagle Express | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cartel Queen | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saucy Lady T | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Queen Camilla | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pipeline Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Happy Soul | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Viking Zim | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Clever Fellow | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Noble Journey | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ruse | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Straight Skinny | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreampoint | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Danzigwiththestars | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shinjuku | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sandro the Great | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Athenry | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Georges Kingdm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Forty Two Ace | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Reunion Tour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | A Colt Named Susie | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.