Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 15, 2021

July 15, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wagon Boss 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Charlie’sarchangel 3.00 2.9 6-1
9 8 Hammerin Aamer 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Flowers for Lisa 4.50 3.9 7-1
8 7 Ekhtibaar 10.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Playwright 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Revenio 30.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 No Lime 30.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Grit and Glory 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Speedometer 1.80 1.5 3-1
4 4 Microbiome 2.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Frosted Oats 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Zmuda 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Seduce 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Prima Della 12.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Martini’s Amica 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Pout 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Everyoneloveslinda 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Treason 2.50 1.8 3-1
9 6 St. Joe Louis (GB) 1.60 1.8 3-1
7 5 So Suave (IRE) 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 4 Point Me By 6.00 2.2 4-1
12 9 Alley Oop Johnny 10.00 4 8-1
3 2 Smile Bryan 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Skyro 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Gussy Mac (IRE) 30.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Wild Banker 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Wudda U Think Now 1.20 SCRATCH
8 8 Life Changer 4.50 SCRATCH
11 8 Lomu 50.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Gem Key 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 5 Kemba 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 1 Evidence Based 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 6 Big Bad Diva 4.50 4.9 9-1
4 2 Kerik 10.00 6 11-1
1 1 Claddagh’s Run 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Come Storming 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hohohoho 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Mopolka 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Alpha Babe 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ocean Air 3.50 SCRATCH
5 3 Rose E Holiday 15.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Lady Scarlet 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 6 Echo Zulu 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 5 Solasta 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 1 Repealing 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Outfoxed 10.00 3.5 7-1
9 8 Texian 12.00 3.8 7-1
10 9 Rolin N Controlin 12.00 4 8-1
8 7 Li Li Bear 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 Martini Twist 30.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Mommasgottarun 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Two Cent Tootsie 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Alba’s Star 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Choose Happiness 8.00 3.4 6-1
11 10 Jazzy Lady 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Kitten by the Sea 2.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Corey Scores 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Positive Skew 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Five Alarm Robin 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Stefanie On Fleek 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 Sky Kitten 30.00 9 17-1
3 3 Courageous Girl 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4A 4 Arham 2.50 2 4-1
12A 11 Ajaaweed 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Business Model 5.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Southern District 4.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Dust Devil 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Yearn for Victory 10.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Claytnthelionheart 10.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Dack Janiel’s 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Bourbon Thunder 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 10 Camp Hope 20.00 8 15-1
5 5 My First Grammy 30.00 9.8 18-1
7 7 Mr. Tip 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Quick Call S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Golden Pal 0.50 3 6-1
9 6 Jaxon Traveler 3.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Kentucky Pharoah 10.00 4.7 9-1
8 5 Rebel Posse 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Omaha City 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Second of July 15.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Fire Sword 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fauci 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mr Sippi 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mainstay 3.50 1.9 3-1
1 1 Pretty Birdie 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 3 Velvet Sister 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 6 Eagle Express 10.00 3 6-1
9 7 Cartel Queen 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Saucy Lady T 30.00 7 13-1
6 5 Queen Camilla 30.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Pipeline Girl 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Happy Soul 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Viking Zim 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Clever Fellow 1.60 2.8 5-1
5 5 Noble Journey 10.00 3.3 6-1
12 11 Ruse 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Straight Skinny 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Dreampoint 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Danzigwiththestars 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Shinjuku 12.00 4.8 9-1
11 10 Sandro the Great 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Athenry 20.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Big Georges Kingdm 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Forty Two Ace 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Reunion Tour 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 A Colt Named Susie 50.00 10.7 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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