July 15, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Irish Lighted Road | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pitaman | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wellfield | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pachi | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Will Ya Win Sum | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | King’s Story | 1.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pocho’s Dream | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | King Zion | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lasten Impression | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hatchet Creek | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Drama Run | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Constancia | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nothins Free | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Passion’s Image | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hey Hey | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Business | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hoppestry | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kennesaw | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ride Richie Ride | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nip N Tuck | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coco Bravado | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stormin El Prado | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temper Tantrum | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three Amigos (FR) | 2.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Angelino | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of the Nile | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Can’t Hide From Me | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Rayo de Luz | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kearny County | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Diamond Dave | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Christian C | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cat Attack | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Manhattan Legacy | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Launch Away | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Risky Risky | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Day | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Romantic Attack | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Imbued | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Irish Halo | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Unburnt | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stack Shack | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emily Bug | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Table One | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Magic Solution | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tap the Mojo | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlington | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Green Mo’ster | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smiling Silas | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bullion | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tornado Boy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Campioni | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Policy Option | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dewy’s Hit | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cosmic Treasure | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.