Sports from the Basement

Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 11, 2021

July 11, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Celebratory 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sandy Bay 2.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Checkerboard Floor 1.80 3.1 6-1
6 6 Victor’s Dynasty 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Mr. Diffley 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Prince of Thieves 8.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Hell Bent 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 U S Army Corps 2.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Kosmonavt 12.00 4 8-1
8 7 Dixie Giant 3.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Lion Kingdom 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 5 Lion’s Goldenheart 10.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 British Royalty 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Jegos Fire 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 English Classic 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Forest Survivor 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Mr. Cool 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Galvaston 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Have a Souper Day 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Secret Reserve 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dancing Dragon 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Souper Classy 8.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Tale of Mineshaft 3.00 1.2 2-1
11 10 Tape to Tape 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 6 Take a Chance 4.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Moonquest 8.00 2.9 6-1
10 9 Desert Eagle 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Runninforcover 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Maritime Mission 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Belentime 20.00 6.5 12-1
3 2 Bodie 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Arbeit 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 City Legend 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Romantic Gamble 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Incendio 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Silent Runner 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Sailor’s Passion 10.00 3.9 7-1
11 10 Santiago Salsa 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Strapping 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Thanks Laura 10.00 4.3 8-1
10 9 Smart Bird 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Ultimate Answer 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Perfect Play 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Wheresthepassion 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Suigu Star 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Soul Freedom 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Infamous Covert 4.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Correlate 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Paperback Hero 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Justalittlehyper 10.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Blue Snow 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Black Hills Bronco 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Executive Holiday 20.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 The Band Coming 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Marine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tidal Forces 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Frosted Over 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Haddassah 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Easy Time 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Keep Grinding 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Candy Overload 10.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Queenston S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Tio Magico 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 Red River Rebel 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Master Spy 6.00 3 6-1
3 2 Artie’s Storm 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 5 Download 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Del Griffith 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Candy Overload 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gretzky the Great 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Another 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Fire for Effect 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Told It All 2.50 2.9 6-1
8 8 Epilogue 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Courtly Manner 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Letthebighossroll 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Gorgeous Kitten 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Two Timing 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Malibu Secret 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 4 My Silencer 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Senor Jobim 4.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Solidify 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Cash Dividend 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Magical Man 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Dun Drum 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Wild Medagliad’oro 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Total Destruction 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Mr Narcissistic 3.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Tiz Romantic 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Pink Gelato 4.50 3.1 6-1
10 10 Seventh Wonder 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 12 Kawacatoose 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Verrazano Narrows 10.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Black Sun 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Preachlittlegospel 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Homelander 30.00 8 15-1
4 4 Passthepuddinpleaz 30.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Touman 30.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Greyshott 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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