July 11, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Doctor K | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | New York One | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sam and Sy | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dr. Rusty Raymond | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Swing Your Sword | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doobiedoobiedoobie | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cooke Brothers | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Buff Hello | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Slaats | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Powerful Force | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Mox | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gallant Gold | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Casa Grande | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Bourbon Gal | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sweet Talking Girl | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Alleria | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cold Hearted Cat | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bears Breeches | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bless and Honor | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Maryland’s Miracle | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Iam a Dancer | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Lassie | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tuff But Fair | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Itgot Grandma | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Danube | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shaka Style | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Find Your Boaz | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Always Forgiven | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Peppi the Hunter | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Johng | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Call Me Plucky | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sue Loves Barbados | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Artistic Endeavor | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Benny Havens | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Beacon Hill | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Super E | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fermat | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beltway Bob | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Speed Game | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ratify | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Celtic Treasure | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Ghost On a Mission | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bobby Two Times | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Where’s the Ben’s | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Rinne | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gottaway | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maru’s Raven | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arbutus | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | What a Story | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Vanzzy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Jack | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gunnison | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Missin the Big Dog | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ballagh Rocks | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Hawkish | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Just Whistle | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Workin On a Dream | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clubman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tappin Cat | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | My Friends Beer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cannon’s Roar | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Premiere Choice | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jackie A | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Voltamour | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lookatlittleferris | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Uncommon Valor | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baltimore Bud | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.