July 11, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fudge Brownie | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Princess Tine (FR) | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Drama | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Wandaful | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Rebellion | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Road Game | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storminside | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magi | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southsider | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nyoman | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saturdays Hangover | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Pleasant Moon | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Driver Dan | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hannity | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shobiz Star | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Landofthepharaohs | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruffolo | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Upside Down | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Niff | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Simply Complicated | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Z | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Angie’s Revrac | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samarita | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bee Happy Attack | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Last Spring | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Macho Classic | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moon Flash | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Half Cocked | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Clear to Close | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Moon of Love (IRE) | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Richies Great Girl | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sister Ruler | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aiken to Be | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Feeling Mischief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Senora Roma | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Twenty | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Compelling Smile | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | City Drifter | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | D’fever | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Get Hammered | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Readthecliffnotes | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arrival | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Richiesgotswagger | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | High Spirits | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | R H Smoakem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Pistol Box | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Empty Holster | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Overpraise | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mister Charming | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Upham | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dramatic Kitten | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | River Finn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Edison Fire | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Talis Park Grad | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.