Sports from the Basement

Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 4, 2021

July 4, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bluegrass Belle 3.50 2 4-1
4 4 Dictate 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Spider Belle 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 November Fog 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Yasinia 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Sadlers Delite 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pino in a Purse 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Leave It With Me 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Flawless Pink 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Louemma 2.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Valley Girl 10.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Eight Speed 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Petite Amie 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Katla’s Fury 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dancing Doll 1.60 1.9 4-1
1 1 Twirling Wind 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Take It Easy 3.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Mizzona 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Airy Fairy 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Ever So d’Wild 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Starlight Ridge 20.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Admiralty Pier 1.80 2.1 4-1
6 5 Faraway Kitten 6.00 3 6-1
8 6 Wedgewood 10.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Burning Man 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 A Thread of Blue 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Honey Won’t 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Primo Touch 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Malibu Uproar 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Native Prince 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Truffle King 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Dolder Grand 1.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Lomaki Force 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Punch Hard 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Beau Guest 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Collective Force 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Northern Conquest 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Houdini’s Awesome 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Twenty Four Mamba 2.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 First Empire 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Summer Sunset 4.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Tragically Funny 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Taradar 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Coo Bird 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 I’m a Chi Too 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Slightly Frosted 15.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Viewfinder 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Doc Boy 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Sir Sahib 2.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Town Cruise 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Rose’s Vision 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Theregoesjojo 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Taos (FR) 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Full Extreme 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Split My Pants 20.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hidden Identity 1.40 1.5 3-1
1 1 Forest Drift 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Down to Earth 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Tara Dawn 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Silent Dixie 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Cassie’s Rainbow 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Roche’s Point 20.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Magic Mountain 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Working the Table 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 6 Lord of Legends 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 7 Fort Hope 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Jocularity 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Coltons Dream 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Dr. Jewel 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 One Punch Charlie 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Silent Fire 6.00 2 4-1
7 6 Battle of Yorktown 4.50 2.2 4-1
10 9 Dr. Green 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 3 Dominant Factor 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Ready At Dawn 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Maximus Momentus 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Righteous Robbie 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Mr Souperstitious 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Arquebus 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Afleet Eddie 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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