July 4, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bluegrass Belle | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dictate | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spider Belle | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | November Fog | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yasinia | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sadlers Delite | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pino in a Purse | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leave It With Me | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flawless Pink | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Louemma | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valley Girl | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eight Speed | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Petite Amie | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Katla’s Fury | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dancing Doll | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twirling Wind | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take It Easy | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzona | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Airy Fairy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ever So d’Wild | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starlight Ridge | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Admiralty Pier | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Faraway Kitten | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Wedgewood | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Burning Man | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Thread of Blue | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Won’t | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Primo Touch | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Malibu Uproar | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Native Prince | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Truffle King | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dolder Grand | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lomaki Force | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Punch Hard | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Guest | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Collective Force | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Conquest | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Houdini’s Awesome | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Twenty Four Mamba | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | First Empire | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Sunset | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tragically Funny | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Taradar | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coo Bird | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’m a Chi Too | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Slightly Frosted | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Viewfinder | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Doc Boy | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Sahib | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Town Cruise | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rose’s Vision | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Theregoesjojo | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Taos (FR) | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Extreme | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Split My Pants | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Identity | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forest Drift | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Down to Earth | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tara Dawn | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silent Dixie | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cassie’s Rainbow | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roche’s Point | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Magic Mountain | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Working the Table | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lord of Legends | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fort Hope | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jocularity | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coltons Dream | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dr. Jewel | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Punch Charlie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Silent Fire | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Battle of Yorktown | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dr. Green | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dominant Factor | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ready At Dawn | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maximus Momentus | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Righteous Robbie | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr Souperstitious | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arquebus | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Afleet Eddie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.