July 4, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Chapel Barn | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Majestic Day | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | River Finn | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jettin Out | 1.20 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Roar of the Lion | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Upham | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Triple Scout | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rachelgotstephen | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stopshoppingamy | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Willow Moon | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jets a Ginnin | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Passion’s Image | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ballybrack Lass | 4.50 | 0.8 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seven Seventeen | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Hot Today | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wildwood Maggie | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Catnip Kitten | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Lily | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ghostlighter | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Richiesgotgame | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maresonofagun | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Commandeer | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valiant Vinny | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Westward Look | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Get None | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chrome Attack | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Savvy Ally | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lipliner | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Belle Brezing | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miz Blue | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Sweet Kat | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chinobe | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mark of the Z | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sturgill | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Omar Attack | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Commish | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alphalfa | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Star of Kodiak | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Halo Hunter | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rio Seco | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | You’re Killin Me | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Croce d’Oro | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Hideaway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Big Sport | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Girlolamo’glory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dark Ninja | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mama Lou | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Imagine Gold | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Command Point | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Tommy Lee | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Diva | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Valerie Valeski | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Missen the Point | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ready At Midnight | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.