Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 4, 2021

July 4, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Chapel Barn 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 2 Majestic Day 5.00 3 6-1
4 3 River Finn 6.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Jettin Out 1.20 3.7 7-1
6 5 Roar of the Lion 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Upham 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Triple Scout 5.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Rachelgotstephen 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Stopshoppingamy 2.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Willow Moon 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Jets a Ginnin 1.40 3.5 7-1
6 6 Passion’s Image 12.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ballybrack Lass 4.50 0.8 2-1
6 6 Seven Seventeen 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 She’s Hot Today 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Wildwood Maggie 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Catnip Kitten 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Golden Lily 5.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ghostlighter 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Richiesgotgame 1.60 2 4-1
3 3 Maresonofagun 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Commandeer 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Valiant Vinny 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Westward Look 8.00 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Get None 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Chrome Attack 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Savvy Ally 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Lipliner 20.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Belle Brezing 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Miz Blue 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 My Sweet Kat 8.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 2.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Chinobe 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Mark of the Z 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Sturgill 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Omar Attack 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Royal Commish 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Alphalfa 5.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Star of Kodiak 8.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 4 Halo Hunter 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Rio Seco 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 You’re Killin Me 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Croce d’Oro 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Grand Hideaway 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Big Sport 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Girlolamo’glory 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dark Ninja 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mama Lou 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Imagine Gold 8.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Command Point 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 My Tommy Lee 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Perfect Diva 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Lizqueenfluerdelis 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Valerie Valeski 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Missen the Point 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Ready At Midnight 4.00 6 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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