Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 3, 2021

July 3, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Let’s Cruise 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Khozie’s Ghost 10.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Silver Cloud 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Spun d’Etat 1.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 Docs Seven 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Gramercy 3.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Temper Tantrum 1.20 1.3 2-1
5 4 Tuff Attack 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Demand Ransom 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 One Putt Richie 3.50 4.9 9-1
3 2 Givin Up None 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Baroque 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Winningisfun 8.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Maystart 1.40 2.3 4-1
3 3 She’s a Big Star 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Varsity Flygirl 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tizaladybug 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Lady Atlantic 5.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Sliabh Aughty (FR) 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Richy 10.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Behavin Myself 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Musical Theatre 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Unembellished 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Duckdevil 4.50 5 9-1
8 7 Rag Tag 3.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Tea After Ballet 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gagoots 3.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Dick the Bruiser 12.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Frontier Charlie 15.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 War Lance 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Battle Creek 2.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Town Agenda 3.50 5.6 11-1
3 3 Cosmic Treasure 5.00 7 13-1
8 8 Violent Fight 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Benelux 10.00 1.5 3-1
4 3 My Bariley 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Sniper Kitten 2.50 3.7 7-1
8 6 Frontana 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 7 Cammack 4.50 5.5 10-1
2 2 Danville 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 5 Bulldog of Bergen 30.00 6.7 13-1
10 8 Krewe Chief 6.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Rio Seco 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dewy’s Hit 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bel Bimbo 10.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Tale of the Nile 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Fort Ridge 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Liberal Lunacy 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Hannity 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Saturdays Hangover 30.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Cadet Captain 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Hinton 4.50 6 11-1
9 9 Diddley 3.50 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Yalikeanything 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Cachaco 10.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Chocolate Bunny 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Powerful Man 30.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Navy Pier 6.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 King’s Story 8.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Irish Tuff 6.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Ringintheyear 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 He’s So Wild 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hope for a Strike 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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