Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 26, 2021

June 26, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Racarino 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Cool Quest 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Partner’s Hope 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Atoka 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Flint Ridge 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 9 Robo Man 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Absolute Chaos 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Sully’s Bro 20.00 7.5 14-1
7 6 Istan Gold 20.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Engrave 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gunite 2.50 4.3 8-1
14 12 Iconic Legacy 6.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Dowagiac Chief 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Rocket One 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Play Action Pass 5.00 5.7 11-1
11 10 Hilarious Affair 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Rattle N Roll 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 7 Call Me Midnight 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Brigadier General 10.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Sensei Lawrence 12.00 7.6 14-1
12 11 Fifth Avenue Red 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Eli 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Atta Boy Anthony 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Buckingham Prince 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Martini’nmoonshine 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Call Me Gusto 30.00 12.9 24-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Rocking the Boat 5.00 2.1 4-1
12 10 Mount Travers 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 5 Nifty 4.50 2.8 5-1
9 7 Buttered Noodles 8.00 3.6 7-1
10 8 Hold Me Black 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Charge the Line 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 3 Senor Jobim 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 6 Madison’s Luna 10.00 6.5 12-1
6 4 Impressed 12.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Frolic More 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Donnels Creek 10.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Lamartine (BRZ) 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Ocean Atlantique 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Thirstforlife 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Great Escape (ARG) 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 American Tattoo (ARG) 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Bourbon War 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Beaver Hat 6.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Moliere 8.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Trident Hit 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Pit Boss 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Envoutante 2.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Letruska 0.80 1.9 4-1
1 1 Point of Honor 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Spice Is Nice 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Vault 10.00 3 6-1
2 2 Antoinette 20.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Kinetic Sky 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Ready to Pounce 3.00 3 6-1
4 3 Calibrate 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Cousin Larry 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Tycoon 10.00 6.6 12-1
3 2 Bajan Rum 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Warrior in Chief 10.00 7.4 14-1
9 8 Camp Hope 12.00 7.8 15-1
5 4 Cajun Moon 12.00 7.9 15-1
11 10 Franz Josef 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Sermononthemount 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – War Chant S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 2 Royal Prince 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 3 Helium 3.50 2 4-1
8 4 Next 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 1 Dyn O Mite 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Accredit 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Starrininmydreams 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 In Effect 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 El Kabong 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Debutante S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wicked Halo 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Behave Virginia 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 2 Tizplenty 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Ontheonesandtwos 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 5 Mollie Kate 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Catchusifyoucan 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Classiness 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 Compressed Energy 30.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Cartel Queen 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mi Estrella 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Double Thunder 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 Red Run 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Glacial 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Vodka N Water 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Lansdowne 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Tapped Off 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Knocker Down 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Whatstheconnection 20.00 6 11-1
11 10 Shesgotattitude 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Whistlewhileyoumow 30.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Rising Outlaw 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Set Piece (GB) 1.60 1.6 3-1
3 3 Somelikeithotbrown 2.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Field Pass 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Ride a Comet 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Spooky Channel 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Kentucky Ghost 20.00 4 7-1
5 5 Hierarchy 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Super Sol 20.00 4 8-1
10 10 In Love (BRZ) 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Mutakatif (IRE) 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Maxfield 0.80 1.4 3-1
9 9 Visitant 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Warrior’s Charge 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Silver Dust 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 South Bend 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Sprawl 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Necker Island 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Chess Chief 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Empty Tomb 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Tepin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Adventuring 5.00 2.1 4-1
8 7 Tobys Heart 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Invincible Gal (GB) 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Town Avenger 6.00 3.4 6-1
12 10 Barista 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 8 New Boss 10.00 4.9 9-1
13 11 Arm Candy 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Navratilova 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Sylvia Q 12.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Bullseye Beauty 15.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Malloy 20.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Fairchild 20.00 10.2 19-1
11 9 Commanders Palace 20.00 10.4 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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