Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 25, 2021

June 25, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Wicked Mad 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Wild for Wycliff 3.50 3.2 6-1
12 11 Amazing Rocket 4.50 3.3 6-1
5 4 Buffalo Shuffle 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 8 Abdan 8.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Brew Crew 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Kolsch 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 2 Maxim Moment 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Mr. Thunderstruck 20.00 8.9 17-1
11 10 Aeronaut 20.00 9.3 17-1
8 7 Son of Grace 20.00 9.3 18-1
2 2 Motawaafeq 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Kattegat 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Take Charge Patti 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Satin Rose 5.00 3.3 6-1
11 9 Good Penny 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Cuzzywuzzy 6.00 4 8-1
8 6 La Pulcinela 4.50 4.3 8-1
10 8 Coinmaker 12.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Laura’s Angle 8.00 4.4 8-1
9 7 La Tourista 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Moonshine Princess 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Devil’s Messenger 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Perfect Sense 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Lautrec 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Bold Minister 4.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Mr. Flattery 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Lawlessness 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Tiz Light the Way 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Released 5.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Tamanrassett 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 She Love Me 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Gimmick 4.50 4.3 8-1
6 5 Trade Secret 3.50 4.9 9-1
2 2 Pipeline Girl 8.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Ready for Charm 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Cousin Rose 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 An Apple a Day 10.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Redrightreturning 12.00 7.2 14-1
10 9 Zmuda 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 11 Tactical Range 12.00 8.2 16-1
11 10 Sunday Grace 20.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Eclipsed 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Jalebi Baby 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady Scarlet 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stella Teresa 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Freudian 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Start Class 30.00 13.3 25-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Eyes On Target 2.00 2.8 5-1
11 10 Our Integrity 5.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Alexander Valley 4.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Centrifuge 6.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Carmel Crush 10.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Sailor’s Return 10.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Royal Tryst 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 7 Sky Temple 15.00 10 19-1
7 7 Nineeleventurbo 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Tariff War 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bourbon Treaty 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Win Worthy 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Tonal Impact 20.00 10.9 21-1
3 3 Jimmy Dan 20.00 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Excession 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Major Fed 1.40 2.5 5-1
4 4 Gigging 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Quantum Leap 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Motagally 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Ready to Answer 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Surly Furious 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tabor Hall 3.00 2 4-1
6 5 Sweet Pearl 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sundial 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 6 Kind Ways 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Misty Veil 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Novel Squall 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 7 Three Tipsy Chix 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Forever Boss 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Demodog 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Peter’s Kitten 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Vividly (GB) 3.50 5.4 10-1
5 5 Take Charge Lorin 5.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Emily’s Oasis 4.50 6.8 13-1
4 4 Turnstone 8.00 7.1 14-1
2 2 Reina Del Sol 8.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Look Me Over 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sunny Isle Beach 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Go Big Green 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Seaside Retreat 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Graysonsmacho Gal 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Stop Shoppin Tammy 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 We the Clouds 20.00 11.5 22-1
8 8 Two Sixtyone 15.00 12.3 23-1
9 9 Sa Foradada 20.00 13.4 25-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Answer In 3.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Coltonator 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Scilly Cay 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 P R Radio Star 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Shoplifted 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Full Authority 12.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Restoring Hope 10.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Verb 8.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Night Time 12.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 American Butterfly 12.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Lykan 15.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Art Collector 1.40 2.5 5-1
6 6 Bango 4.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Strike Power 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Long Range Toddy 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Mucho 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Aloha West 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Bourbon Calling 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Relentless Dancer 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Home Base 30.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Gypsy Touch 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Flash Magic 3.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Sparkle of Hope 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Front Street 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Street Missy 12.00 4.5 8-1
7 6 Perhaps 8.00 4.5 8-1
12 11 Liberty Isle 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Chione 10.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Closet Shopper 20.00 5.2 10-1
11 10 Town Beauty 20.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 Easyonmyeyes 30.00 7 13-1
13 13 Wicked Intent 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 The Girls 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 South Georgia 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Temper Time 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Candy Anne 50.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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