June 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Honey Mug | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapalong | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rachelgotstephen | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Bliss | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Better Angels | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Bullion | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Packed House | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pistol Box | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mister Charming | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Azrael | 1.20 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Its My Bag Baby | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Z U Soon | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Estardo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fudge Brownie | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bellarific | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zidikai | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maystart | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tiz Susan Ann | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cold Birdie | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Lay | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Pitaman | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stomping Hotrod | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fifty One Ninety | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lasten Impression | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Talktoeachother | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | McRags | 8.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jeff the Lion | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Hide From Me | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rayo de Luz | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rudiger | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Memory Bank | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bulldog of Bergen | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Shez Reckless | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One Step Ahead | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Upside Down | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swoonatra | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charlottes Way | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Miss Z | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Masterful Mistress | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Iggy Bigs | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kennesaw | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Two Cookie Rule | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Biarritz | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Comiskey Park | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Agave Kid | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Coco Bravado | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Lance | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carson Rules | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fulco | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Blue Note | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Well Told | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tightrope | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Olson | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Commish | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stormin El Prado | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Arba | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Amigos (FR) | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sand Mountain | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.