Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 25, 2021

June 25, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Honey Mug 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Tapalong 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Rachelgotstephen 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Juju’s Specialgirl 2.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Champagne Bliss 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Better Angels 10.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Bullion 5.00 3.1 6-1
2 1 Packed House 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Pistol Box 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Mister Charming 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Azrael 1.20 4 8-1
1 1 Its My Bag Baby 15.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Z U Soon 10.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Estardo 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Fudge Brownie 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Bellarific 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Zidikai 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Maystart 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Tiz Susan Ann 1.80 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Cold Birdie 6.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 El Lay 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Pitaman 1.40 3 6-1
4 3 Stomping Hotrod 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Fifty One Ninety 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Lasten Impression 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Talktoeachother 2.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 McRags 8.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Jeff the Lion 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Can’t Hide From Me 3.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Rayo de Luz 2.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Rudiger 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Memory Bank 4.50 4.7 9-1
6 6 Bulldog of Bergen 15.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Shez Reckless 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 One Step Ahead 4.50 1.3 2-1
6 5 Upside Down 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Swoonatra 8.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Charlottes Way 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Miss Z 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Masterful Mistress 12.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Iggy Bigs 3.50 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kennesaw 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 4 Two Cookie Rule 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Biarritz 2.50 SCRATCH
8 7 Comiskey Park 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Agave Kid 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Coco Bravado 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 War Lance 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Carson Rules 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fulco 10.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Midnight Blue Note 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Well Told 12.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Tightrope 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Olson 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Royal Commish 4.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Stormin El Prado 30.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Arba 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Three Amigos (FR) 8.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Sand Mountain 10.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement providesĀ no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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