June 20, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cantrell Hill | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cabertoss | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nashvegas | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Futile | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jack Van Berg | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cave Run | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thirsty Betrayal | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | D’ Rapper | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Alexandros | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Bella Brown | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lastchanceatglory | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Champagneonme | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Candy Carlos | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chasin Charlie | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colonel Klink | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Totalizer | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 12A | 11 | Chileno | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ottoman Empire | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Almuahed | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Southern Sense | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bourbon Heist | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Condemn | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Conagher | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Officer Nick | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Texas Red Hot | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cachirulo | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buckingham Prince | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Man On the Moon | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ekati’s Verve | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pintxos | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Vasariano | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Why Why Paul Why | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Rye Time | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Davidic Line | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Soros | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | A C Expressway | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gold for Kitten | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Suki | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Screenwriter | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hat Tip | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Runaway Mom | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tempereya | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discreet Kitty | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Camellia Gal | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hashtag Winner | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Blue Sage | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Ship’s Creek | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Imperial Moon | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tribord | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Mini Dress | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Liberty Belle | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | As You Were | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Tataboq | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Shirley Greene | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Run Cookie Run | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tone My Betty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | In the Key | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Princess Lea | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Super Quick | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Played Hard | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Laynlomakndough | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wolfbane | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapit’s Ruby | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Waiting On William | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Tactics | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Attorney Tim | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Falkirk | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silenced | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bama Breeze | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Eron Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Own Agenda | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | King Abner | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forty Under | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Strike Me Down | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Thirstforlife | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Answer In | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Aloha West | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pioneer Spirit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Beaver Hat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Flap Jack | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Happymac | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trashtalkinyankee | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Randello | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oncoming Train | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Schmoozin | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kadri | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luna’s in Charge | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Violent Pass | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | In Sky We Trust | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Catipari | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Haig Point | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ocelot | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Forsaken | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prairie | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stribling | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | King’s Mischief | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pregame | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Point Me By | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ghostliner | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Purple Dream | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | My Man Flint | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Robo Man | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lend It Tewmey | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Pal Johnny | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.