Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 20, 2021

June 20, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cantrell Hill 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Cabertoss 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Nashvegas 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Futile 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Jack Van Berg 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Cave Run 4.00 4 8-1
7 7 Thirsty Betrayal 12.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 D’ Rapper 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 7 Alexandros 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 3 Big Bella Brown 2.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Lastchanceatglory 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Champagneonme 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Candy Carlos 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 6 Chasin Charlie 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Colonel Klink 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7A 6 Totalizer 3.00 1.1 2-1
12A 11 Chileno 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 7 Ottoman Empire 4.00 1.3 2-1
4 3 Almuahed 5.00 2.1 4-1
11 10 Southern Sense 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Bourbon Heist 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 2 Condemn 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 8 Conagher 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Officer Nick 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Texas Red Hot 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 5 Cachirulo 30.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Buckingham Prince 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Man On the Moon 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Ekati’s Verve 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 6 Pintxos 5.00 3.2 6-1
5A 5 Vasariano 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Why Why Paul Why 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Tiz Rye Time 12.00 7.2 14-1
9 7 Davidic Line 12.00 9 17-1
6A 6 Soros 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 A C Expressway 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gold for Kitten 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Suki 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Screenwriter 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Hat Tip 4.00 3 6-1
6 5 Runaway Mom 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Tempereya 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Discreet Kitty 30.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Camellia Gal 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Hashtag Winner 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Blue Sage 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 3 Ship’s Creek 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 5 Imperial Moon 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Tribord 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 4 Mini Dress 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 6 Liberty Belle 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 2 As You Were 8.00 4 8-1
10 7 Tataboq 12.00 6.6 12-1
11 8 Shirley Greene 20.00 8 15-1
2 2 Run Cookie Run 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Tone My Betty 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 In the Key 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Princess Lea 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 4 Super Quick 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 7 Played Hard 3.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Laynlomakndough 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Wolfbane 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Tapit’s Ruby 15.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Waiting On William 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Bold Tactics 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Monarchs Glen (GB) 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Attorney Tim 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Falkirk 4.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Silenced 6.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Bama Breeze 10.00 6.7 13-1
10 9 Eron Do Jaguarete (BRZ) 10.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Own Agenda 10.00 7.3 14-1
12 11 King Abner 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Forty Under 12.00 7.6 14-1
11 10 Strike Me Down 15.00 9.8 19-1
15 15 Thirstforlife 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Answer In 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Alfons Walde (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Aloha West 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Pioneer Spirit 6.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Beaver Hat 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Flap Jack 20.00 12.6 24-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Happymac 1.60 1.6 3-1
5 5 Trashtalkinyankee 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Randello 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Oncoming Train 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Schmoozin 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Kadri 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Luna’s in Charge 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Violent Pass 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 In Sky We Trust 30.00 7 13-1
6 6 Catipari 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Haig Point 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Ocelot 4.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Forsaken 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Prairie 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Stribling 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 King’s Mischief 5.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Pregame 8.00 2.9 6-1
10 10 Point Me By 12.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Ghostliner 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Purple Dream 20.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 My Man Flint 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Robo Man 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lend It Tewmey 30.00 10.5 20-1
5 5 My Pal Johnny 30.00 11.3 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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