Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 19, 2021

June 19, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Full Charge 1.40 2.8 5-1
3 3 American Union 2.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Reserve 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Vail of Honor 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Derby House 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Chrome Republic 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Marvelousmoondance 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lovemesomeme 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Thundering Creed 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Break Curfew 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Roc’s Princess 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Congratulated 4.50 4.9 9-1
1 1 Lexintonia 4.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Be Like Water 3.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Stone Town 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 3 Cruz Bay 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 1 Brooklynn’s Dabomb 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Sweet Bay 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Bahia Girl 10.00 7 13-1
11 10 Sentimental Cross 10.00 7.2 14-1
12 11 Touch of Class 15.00 9.3 18-1
6 5 Shaniah 12.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Lets Go All Theway 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sparkle of Hope 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Jim’s Bronze Star 10.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Upandcomingstar 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ain’t She Dahrlin 20.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Liz C 12.00 10.4 20-1
13 12 Princess Grey C 15.00 10.4 20-1
7 6 Beachside Bunny 15.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Just Call Ray 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Better Tone 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Creative Bid 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Moon Dial 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Big Boss Ben 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 On Spot 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Braggadocio (FR) 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Versatile 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Lewd 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Zip It Scotty 20.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Sometimes Always 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 7 Grendel 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 5 Bold Adventure 4.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Calidus 8.00 3.8 7-1
11 9 El Casadora 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Cavatina 10.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 John E’s Cowboy 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 2 Knievel 15.00 8.3 16-1
5 4 Fredericktown 15.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Morethansoultitle 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Stone Slinger 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Handy 3.00 2 4-1
12 10 High Tide 6.00 2.8 5-1
10 9 Exult 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Midnight Jostar 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Big Blue 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Cane Creek Road 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Fay Dan 12.00 6.4 12-1
13 11 Jay Vee Bee 20.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Chantry Flats 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Kadri 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Oh Say (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Rhythm Section 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Englander 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hoistthemainsail 20.00 10 19-1
3 3 Lemon and Diem 20.00 10.3 19-1
4 4 Launch Pad 30.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Joe Frazier 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Cazadero 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Sittin On Go 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Upstriker 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Vulcan 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Ram 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Rolling Fork 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Aasr 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Extreme Force 5.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Pirate Rick 4.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Silver Ratio 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Top Gunner 8.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Mister K 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Coach Bahe 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 He’s a Babe 12.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Mahomes Money 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 West Warpath 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Soros 20.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Enjoyitwhilewecan 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Lake Lucerne 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 3 Take Charge Ro 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Three Flamingos 6.00 3.1 6-1
12 9 Guitty (FR) 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Witez 8.00 4.7 9-1
1A 1 First Course 15.00 6.1 12-1
14A 10 Stand Tall 15.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Tweety Show 20.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Curly Ruth 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Edgee Angel 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Empress Eleanor 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pythoness 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Alta’s Award 3.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Golden Curl 30.00 10.8 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sconsin 1.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Bell’s the One 1.40 2 4-1
3 3 Four Graces 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Miss Mosaic 12.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Shesomajestic 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Jungle Juice (IRE) 30.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miner’s Queen 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Honorably 4.50 2.7 5-1
13 11 Nota Bene 3.00 3.2 6-1
10 8 Fayette Blue 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Ms Temptation 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Liam’s Nessy 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Music App 8.00 5.6 11-1
11 9 Pathetique 10.00 6.5 12-1
12 10 Fine Cotton 10.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 She’s So Cali 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Quality of Mercy 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Megan’s Clara 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Dynamite Gift 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Momma Rio 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Social Chatter 20.00 11.9 23-1
5 4 Posh Playday 20.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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