June 19, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Full Charge | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Union | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Reserve | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vail of Honor | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Derby House | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chrome Republic | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Marvelousmoondance | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lovemesomeme | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thundering Creed | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Break Curfew | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roc’s Princess | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Congratulated | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lexintonia | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Be Like Water | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stone Town | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cruz Bay | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sweet Bay | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bahia Girl | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sentimental Cross | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Touch of Class | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shaniah | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lets Go All Theway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sparkle of Hope | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Upandcomingstar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Liz C | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Princess Grey C | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beachside Bunny | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Just Call Ray | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Better Tone | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Creative Bid | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moon Dial | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Boss Ben | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | On Spot | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Braggadocio (FR) | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Versatile | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lewd | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zip It Scotty | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sometimes Always | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grendel | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Adventure | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Calidus | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | El Casadora | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cavatina | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | John E’s Cowboy | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Knievel | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fredericktown | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morethansoultitle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Stone Slinger | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Handy | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | High Tide | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Exult | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Jostar | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Blue | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cane Creek Road | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fay Dan | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Jay Vee Bee | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chantry Flats | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Kadri | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Oh Say (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rhythm Section | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Englander | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hoistthemainsail | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon and Diem | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Launch Pad | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Joe Frazier | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cazadero | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sittin On Go | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Upstriker | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vulcan | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ram | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rolling Fork | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Aasr | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Extreme Force | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pirate Rick | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Silver Ratio | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Top Gunner | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mister K | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Coach Bahe | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | He’s a Babe | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mahomes Money | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | West Warpath | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soros | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lake Lucerne | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Take Charge Ro | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Three Flamingos | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Guitty (FR) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Witez | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | First Course | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14A | 10 | Stand Tall | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tweety Show | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Curly Ruth | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Edgee Angel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Empress Eleanor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pythoness | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Alta’s Award | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Golden Curl | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sconsin | 1.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Four Graces | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Mosaic | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shesomajestic | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miner’s Queen | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honorably | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Nota Bene | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fayette Blue | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ms Temptation | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Liam’s Nessy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Music App | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Pathetique | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Fine Cotton | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s So Cali | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Quality of Mercy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Megan’s Clara | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dynamite Gift | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Momma Rio | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Social Chatter | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Posh Playday | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.