Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 18, 2021

June 18, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mr. Flattery 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Poirier 1.20 2.3 4-1
2 2 Niangua 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Mr. Peterkin 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Mr. Banyan 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Sonic Burn 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Hazy Command 2.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Speedometer 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Pretty Birdie 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Manasota Sunset 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Penny Saver 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Verylittlecents 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Farm Girl 20.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Giddy Up Zoey 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Our Lady Nelson 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Seize the Treasure 2.50 3.7 7-1
8 5 Slim Slow Slider 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Skeptical 5.00 5.1 10-1
11 8 Tempo Madness 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 6 Gingrich 8.00 6.4 12-1
10 7 Creative Kid 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 1 Tokamak 8.00 6.6 12-1
5 3 Derivative 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Reddington 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Embrace 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Trebbiano 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 He Is Ready 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Zip It Scotty 20.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Combustion 20.00 11.9 22-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Almashriq 1.60 2.1 4-1
6 6 Hombrazo 4.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Mobster Gun 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Catholic Guilt 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Glory Road 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Cancellara 15.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Exemplar 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Time for Trouble 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Jack’s Advantage 4.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Bucky 4.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Pickford 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Chicory Blue 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Earnednevergiven 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 She Love Me 30.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lazy Summer Day 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Time for Glory 2.50 3 6-1
8 8 Sequaya 3.50 4 8-1
7 7 Beautiful Bella 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Bia Bolt Runner 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Seven Kingdoms 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Tootsie 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Flyta 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Mayapretty 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Colonelsdarktemper 1.20 1.8 3-1
5 5 Hop Kat 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Leader of Men 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Eskenforit 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Shortlist 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Olympic Romp 20.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Intrepid Heart 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Treasure Trove 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Sonneman 2.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Enforceable 3.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Mailman Money 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Core Beliefs 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Royal Mesa 12.00 5 10-1
11 10 My Sixth Sense 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Finnick the Fierce 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Final Jeopardy 30.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Code Runner 30.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 King Abner 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 News Break 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Buy Me Candy 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Cibolian 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Huge Bigly 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Curly Wurly 10.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Honor Hop 10.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Grey Streak 15.00 7.6 14-1
10A 10 Hellorhighwater 10.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Sursum Corda 12.00 8.4 16-1
8 8 Decision Maker 15.00 8.6 16-1
11A 11 English Challenge 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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