June 12, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cheyenne Wind | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Romancer | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Climb and Maintain | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Willie Has Hart | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Come Alone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Lt. Finn | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Liveryman | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Sponsored | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Espionage | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Steely Danza | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Title Shot | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Are You Happy | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mega Charlie | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maxim Moment | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Something Natural | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bodemeister Wind | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Major Attraction | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Runnin’ Ray | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Language Barrier | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | See the Pyramids | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toobadsosad | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Bonkers | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flauto | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Priddis | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Twirling Patti | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Anthropology | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Legendary Gift | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Skybox | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Satin Rose | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Pearl Girl | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coinmaker | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Forever Mesa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Speed Zone | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Keep Your Distance | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gianna’s Gift | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Fact | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Erv’s Wench | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady McKenzie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Itsallaboutmememe | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Absolute Love | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Centerfold Angel | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Edith | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Goin’ Good | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mused (GB) | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Time | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Connie K | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Twenty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Amalfi Princess | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Time Leverage | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ducale | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pledgeofallegiance | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sams Time | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Preseli’s Tale | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Global Appeal | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fan Club | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Out Work’n | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jennings | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Royal Tryst | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Comedian | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Miracle Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Looting | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tonal Impact | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Joyful Cadence | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sianara | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portilla | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Code Name Kate | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Frosted | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Malloy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Platinum Sky | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fabricate | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spun d’Etat | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Founder’s Day | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coppelia | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Altered Shot | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 1.20 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hendy Woods | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | She’sonthewarpath | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mintd (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tuned (GB) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lashara (GB) | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vezpa (BRZ) | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flash n’ Dance | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dominga | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Crystal Ball | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sister Hanan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Winter Pool | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Handy | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Passage | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior in Chief | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Tip | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Katzarelli | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Greener Pastures | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Smith’s Point | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kizzy B | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Tactics | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lenni Be Lucky | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Second Row Center | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Lemon’s Medaglia | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Incessant | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Tapit’s Ruby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.