June 10, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Cardioversion | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Prinecess Doir | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Winze | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Teller to Sing | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Juliaison | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graciana | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Citi Charm | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Scabbard | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bebop Shoes | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Eyes West | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aye Aye Sir | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I’m Money | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 6 | Skinny Dip | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Lady of Luxury | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Purrfectly Claire | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Sara Sea | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | More | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Teenage Kicks | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fashionable Lady | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lady Anna | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Song River | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dance Rhythms | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Violenza | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Intuicao (BRZ) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cabertoss | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Allen | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Oath | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Urbanite | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fevola | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Baquero Flies | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Twinkling Knight | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Blest Life | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freudian | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Stella Grace | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Mila | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | My Girl Steve | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hazy Command | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sure Fire | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gata Runz | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Champagne Sister | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6 | Youens | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pettigo Girl | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mending | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Family Time | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Temple Belle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Forever Home | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | I’m Stylin | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 13 | The Ginger Queen (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Lucy’s Cakes Fly | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Cha Cha Mission | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Twentytwenty Hoax | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Never Content (IRE) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Gray Nay | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Exotic West | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Focus First | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stagecoach Mary | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Polished Gem | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bayshore Foxes | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dana’s Beauty | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Altered Shot | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fouette | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Duplicitous | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Coppelia | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mischiefful | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lisa’s Legacy | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ursulina | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Oooh Barracuda | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Super Ready | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mused (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Never Forget | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Agog | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Risky Reward | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Blonde by Nature | 50.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.