Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 10, 2021

June 10, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Cardioversion 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 1 Prinecess Doir 2.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Winze 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Teller to Sing 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 3 Juliaison 30.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Graciana 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Citi Charm 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Scabbard 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Bebop Shoes 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 All Eyes West 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Aye Aye Sir 4.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 I’m Money 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 6 Skinny Dip 2.00 1.4 3-1
11 5 Lady of Luxury 2.00 1.4 3-1
4 1 Purrfectly Claire 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 3 Sara Sea 4.50 4.3 8-1
10 4 More 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 2 Teenage Kicks 15.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Fashionable Lady 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lady Anna 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Song River 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dance Rhythms 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Violenza 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Intuicao (BRZ) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cabertoss 1.60 1.5 3-1
5 5 Allen 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Sacred Oath 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Urbanite 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Fevola 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Baquero Flies 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Twinkling Knight 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Blest Life 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Freudian 4.00 1.9 4-1
9 5 Stella Grace 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Lady Mila 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 4 My Girl Steve 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Hazy Command 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Sure Fire 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gata Runz 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Champagne Sister 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 6 Youens 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 3 Pettigo Girl 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 4 Mending 4.50 3.7 7-1
12 7 Family Time 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 5 Temple Belle 5.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Forever Home 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 5 I’m Stylin 15.00 7.7 15-1
1 13 The Ginger Queen (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH
1A 14 Lucy’s Cakes Fly 2.50 SCRATCH
3 2 Cha Cha Mission 3.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Lizqueenfluerdelis 20.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Twentytwenty Hoax 15.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Never Content (IRE) 1.60 SCRATCH
4 2 Gray Nay 30.00 12.1 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Exotic West 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Focus First 3.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Stagecoach Mary 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Polished Gem 3.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Bayshore Foxes 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Dana’s Beauty 5.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Altered Shot 1.80 2 4-1
13 13 Fouette 2.00 2.1 4-1
15 15 Duplicitous 5.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 Coppelia 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Mischiefful 2.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Lisa’s Legacy 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Ursulina 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Oooh Barracuda 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Super Ready 50.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mused (GB) 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Never Forget 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Illegal Smile (IRE) 1.80 SCRATCH
10 10 Agog 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Risky Reward 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Blonde by Nature 50.00 12.2 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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