June 4, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tizplenty | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Scarlet | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Meanwhileinleitrim | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Hope | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jalebi Baby | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stella Teresa | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Keen Mind | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Rome’s Burning | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Mr. Halftime | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | On Spot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vidal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | World of Fools | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Creative Bid | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ann in the Middle | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sequaya | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bow Down Tewmey | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Templuna | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jane’s Gold Tour | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hellcat Warrior | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Code Duello | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zippy Baby | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Blue Cat | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Optimus Kat | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Launch Pad | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Parrot Head | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Westward Look | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Ballinonabudjet | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Hold Tight | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Eastside Cool | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Heaven Street | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cool Papa G | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Volcanic | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Feelthebeat | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cairo Calling | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tapped Off | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Combustion | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Trickizar | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dulcimer Dame | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hoptown Honey | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Dark Secret | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fleeta Belle | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Pinkerton | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Frostmourne | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Peace Achieved | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hierarchy | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fighting Seabee | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Split the Wickets | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Atone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Two Emmys | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jais’s Solitude | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hop Kat | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Attachment Rate | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One for Richie | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Corfu | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rubus | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cummings | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get the Prize | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spicy Marg | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nayibeth | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Girl Named Patsy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Two Sixtyone | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bullseye Beauty | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Joy of Painting | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diggin Gold | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lexintonia | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Never Forget | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ursulina | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Agog | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mused (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Coppelia | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Altered Shot | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Sail On Ellen | 20.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Congratulated | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.