Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 4, 2021

June 4, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tizplenty 1.20 2.5 5-1
6 6 Lady Scarlet 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Meanwhileinleitrim 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Awesome Hope 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Jalebi Baby 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Stella Teresa 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Keen Mind 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 2 Rome’s Burning 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 3 Mr. Halftime 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 1 On Spot 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Vidal 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 World of Fools 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Creative Bid 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ann in the Middle 1.40 1.6 3-1
4 4 Sequaya 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Bow Down Tewmey 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Templuna 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Jane’s Gold Tour 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Hellcat Warrior 8.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Code Duello 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 1 Zippy Baby 2.50 2.1 4-1
1A 6 Blue Cat 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 3 Optimus Kat 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 7 Launch Pad 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 2 Parrot Head 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Westward Look 8.00 7.2 14-1
7 8 Ballinonabudjet 10.00 8.5 16-1
8 9 Hold Tight 1.80 SCRATCH
9 10 Eastside Cool 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Heaven Street 3.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Cool Papa G 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Volcanic 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Feelthebeat 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Cairo Calling 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Tapped Off 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Combustion 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Trickizar 1.40 2.2 4-1
1 1 Dulcimer Dame 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Hoptown Honey 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 My Dark Secret 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Fleeta Belle 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Miss Pinkerton 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Frostmourne 3.50 3.7 7-1
4 3 Peace Achieved 5.00 4 8-1
3 2 Hierarchy 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Fighting Seabee 8.00 6.7 13-1
2 1 Split the Wickets 10.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Atone 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Two Emmys 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jais’s Solitude 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Hop Kat 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Attachment Rate 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 One for Richie 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 I’m Corfu 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Rubus 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Cummings 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Get the Prize 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Spicy Marg 2.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Nayibeth 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Girl Named Patsy 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Two Sixtyone 5.00 5.5 10-1
6 5 Bullseye Beauty 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Joy of Painting 10.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Diggin Gold 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Lexintonia 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Never Forget 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ursulina 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Agog 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mused (GB) 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Coppelia 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Altered Shot 3.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Sail On Ellen 20.00 12.7 24-1
9 8 Congratulated 20.00 12.9 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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