Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday, May 31, 2021

May 31, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Baja Fog 1.40 2 4-1
6 5 Promptly Done 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 4 Jamaican Traffic 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 3 Baytown Lyla 5.00 4.3 8-1
1A 6 Baytown Valleygirl 5.00 4.5 8-1
2 1 Classiness 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Diva Dixie 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cabot 1.60 1.2 2-1
3 3 Undercover Lover 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 State Treasurer 2.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Ace Destroyer 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 El Venue 8.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Figure It Out 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Luna Fortis 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Bye Bye Bertie 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Resurrection Road 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Darlene Strong 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Sweet Willemina 8.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Take Charge Patti 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Hennys Crazy Train 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Sweet Workout 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 La Pulcinela 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Sea Song 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 She’s a Deal 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Plants and Birds 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Graceful Choice 10.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jazzy Lady 2.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Time for Glory 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Lazy Summer Day 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Misty Veil 6.00 3.4 7-1
8 8 Mayapretty 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Beautiful Bella 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 What Goes On Tour 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 City Fun 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Yogurt 15.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Maxim Moment 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Hope and Dignity 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 In Sky We Trust 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Kolsch 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Walker’s Quist 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Hay Sport 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Are You Happy 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 First Premio 1.80 1.8 3-1
6 6 Fortuity 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Vintage Print 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Street Ready 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Little Menace 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Mutakatif (IRE) 10.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Super Sol 12.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Uncle Kick 15.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Ocean Atlantique 4.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Beaver Hat 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hop Kat 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Truculent 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Li’l Tootsie 1.80 1.2 2-1
1 1 Southern Grayce 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Farsighted 3.50 2.9 6-1
6 5 Big Time 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Novel Squall 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Gulf Coast 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Advanced Placement 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Shaldag 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Happy Hepo 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Incitatus 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Bakwena 3.50 3.1 6-1
9 9 Potus 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Sliabh Aughty (FR) 10.00 5 9-1
1 1 Bourbon Treaty 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Baytown Finley 20.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Carmel Crush 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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