May 21, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mike’s Lady | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Sully | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Laska | 1.20 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Irina’s Hero | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Full of Heart | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Global Monopoly | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Creed | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Smiling Silas | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Night Things | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | High Spirits | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Battle Creek | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zawadi | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pocket Player | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Half Cocked | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lastfortinofamily | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coming Up Aces | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Violent Fight | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soviet | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Draw the Line | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Power Cry | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kichiro | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Fort Ridge | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Inclusive | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Angelino | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saturdays Hangover | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Driver Dan | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Christian C | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Call the Colonel | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cadet Captain | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Citali | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Landofthepharaohs | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Upham | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ioya Again | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fly Nightly | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Overpraise | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Canihaveitlikethat | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Its My Bag Baby | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Curlington | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tuff Attack | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Campioni | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Let’s Cruise | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vegas Blue | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Flashy Girl | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | U Can Do It | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Missen the Point | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valerie Valeski | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Summer Home | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Colorofacloud | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dorota | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Empty Holster | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cowboys Dream | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tornado Boy | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Gray Blur | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mister Charming | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Botswana Taps | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Giant’s Forrest | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Chapel Barn | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | River Finn | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roar of the Lion | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Frankincense | 4.50 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Two Cookie Rule | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Commandeer | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Richiesgotgame | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dewy’s Hit | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Varsity Flygirl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Frontier Charlie | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of Miami | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Two Worlds | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Universe | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Gagoots | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Barleewon | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Krewe Chief | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sniper Kitten | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stanford (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mystery Man | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Memory Bank | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Preacher Power | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Chest | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rudiger | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Changi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Here Comes Kyle | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hemp Heaven | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.