May 15, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nerves of Steel | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Man Friday | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Barraza | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flashiest | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Back Ring Luck | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sensemaker | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coastal Kid | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | House Limit | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Synthesis | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Truth Seeker | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dr. Troutman | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mongolian Wind | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Lazaro Barrera S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wipe the Slate | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Laurel River | 0.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’ll Stand Taller | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Chosen Vron | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Angel of Freedom | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moart | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Witch Moon | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fi Fi Pharoah | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shell Shock | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mongolian Mission | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bold Endeavor | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kershaw | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heywoods Beach | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sash (GB) | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Major Cabbie | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Liar Liar (IRE) | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hoop Dream | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ox Bridge | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Absolute Unit | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Bye Putin | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bud Knight | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | So Very Smart | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Elgofranco | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Andy | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sassy Chasey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lips Like Sugar | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Supersonic Flyer | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hot and a Mess | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Medusa’s Gaze | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | V Bucks | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Half Hoping | 4.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pistachio Princess | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pancakes and Beer | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mamas Got Cash | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Chasing Fame | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rocktillyoudrop | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reckoning Day | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Goldini | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Del Oro | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Titrate | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wedding Groom | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crossword | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Good With People | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I Will Not | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Howbeit | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whisky My God (ARG) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tap Back | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Explosive | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Littlebitamedal | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rayray | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lincoln Hawk (IRE) | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Newpark (IRE) | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Subconscious | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eagle Chief | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hollywoodhellraisr | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magic Man | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Doncic | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Aurelian Man | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harbored Memories | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Istanbul | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Perfecto Amor | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pro Bono | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.