May 15, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Draft Capital | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Minister | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Musk | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tiz the Journey | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dejohn | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eagle Cap | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Rags | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Drop Anchor | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Walsh | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Indeed | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Eyes West | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Bob | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Natalies Charm | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Evidence Based | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Demodog | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nota Bene | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Speightstown Shirl | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flippant | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prominently | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Suchada | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Norma Jean B. | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shush | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Picasso Collection | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Admaa | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mummy Dearest | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Candy Anne | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Incessant | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Walk Me Home | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nurturing | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bertrada | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prinecess Doir | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Simply Beguiled | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Winze | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clearly Smashing | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I’m Stylin | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Kaely’s Sister | 0.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Frosted | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Caught Looking | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | To a T | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stylish Rags | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chakra | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Combo | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Commanders Palace | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cruz Bay | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tayet | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Naked On the Beach | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Be Like Water | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deemed Essential | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Ride | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Salit | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Confident | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Passo a Frente | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Wendy’s Fine Wine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | My Pharoah Lady | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Closet Shopper | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Big Bee | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Trick Hat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sea Song | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My My Munny | 30.00 | 12.4 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Turnagain Tide | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Claytnthelionheart | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dack Janiel’s | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bear Alley | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Money for Mischief | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Passage | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cancellara | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Time Leverage | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Silver Spur | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mischievous Rogue | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Out Work’n | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Terawatt | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bayou Gem | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Preseli’s Tale | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Motawaafeq | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Walker’s Quist | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mr Annoying | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Foxxy Belle | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dance Rhythms | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady of Luxury | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Perfect Happiness | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Violenza | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ghosting Kim | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Curl | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sara Sea | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | More | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Nadine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tipsy Gal | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Aasr | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ekati’s Verve | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Handy | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Juju | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Copper King | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rye Humor | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Striking a Pose | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Coach Bahe | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sound the Charge | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A. K. Safari | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Louisville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Arklow | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Crafty Daddy | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Knight | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ajourneytofreedom | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Admiralty Pier | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fantasioso (ARG) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spooky Channel | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bakers Bay | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fighting Seabee | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Tide | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jais’s Solitude | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Imperador (ARG) | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Artemus Eagle | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.