May 15, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Grey Mask | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Young Corbett | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Hero | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elusive Force | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ripe Attack | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Southsider | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magi | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Betweenhereandcool | 2.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Insane Lifestyle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Abby Hatcher (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carissa Crismas | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Breeze Rider | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frond | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Well Spent | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Oh So Terrible | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Wildwood Maggie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hero Alexandra | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Express | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Catnip Kitten | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vegan Goes Best | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Her Gold Mine | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Golden Lily | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mountain Melodies | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Ride Richie Ride | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Copper Crossing | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Macho Madness | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Macho Classic | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moon Flash | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fixico | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Takota | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Timingiseverything | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Maxximum Energy | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pleasant Moon | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Andreas | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Storminside | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Splash for Gold | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Citali | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Again Jackie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Dawn’s Dancer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Tapalong | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Angelcents | 1.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Chrome Attack | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dance Or Stroll | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Willow Moon | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Belle Brezing | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Romantic Attack | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Egomaniac | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rakeez | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Semi Charmed Day | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violator | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Day | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ugo | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ruffolo | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | And Won | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Hannity | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Tan | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Stock Trade | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Broth | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Hardly a Secret | 4.50 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duchossois | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy D | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Honest to Goodness | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.