Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 15, 2021

May 15, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Grey Mask 4.00 2.6 5-1
9 8 Young Corbett 20.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 High Hero 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Elusive Force 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Ripe Attack 4.50 5.7 11-1
8 7 Southsider 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 6 Magi 12.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Betweenhereandcool 2.50 7.7 15-1
4 4 Insane Lifestyle 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Abby Hatcher (IRE) 2.50 3.5 7-1
3 2 Carissa Crismas 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Breeze Rider 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Frond 2.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Well Spent 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Oh So Terrible 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Wildwood Maggie 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Hero Alexandra 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Summer Express 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Catnip Kitten 5.00 4 7-1
2 2 Vegan Goes Best 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Her Gold Mine 4.50 4.5 9-1
8 8 Golden Lily 5.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Mountain Melodies 4.50 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Ride Richie Ride 1.60 1.3 2-1
7 6 Copper Crossing 10.00 2.9 6-1
5 4 Macho Madness 4.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Macho Classic 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Mr. Eleventh Hour 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Moon Flash 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Fixico 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Takota 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Timingiseverything 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Maxximum Energy 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Pleasant Moon 1.80 2.5 5-1
7 6 Andreas 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Storminside 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Splash for Gold 15.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Citali 4.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Not Again Jackie 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Dawn’s Dancer 4.50 SCRATCH
4 3 Tapalong 15.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Angelcents 1.00 3.6 7-1
7 5 Chrome Attack 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 4 Dance Or Stroll 5.00 4.5 9-1
2 1 Willow Moon 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Belle Brezing 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Romantic Attack 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Egomaniac 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Rakeez 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Semi Charmed Day 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Violator 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Dom Caetano (ARG) 2.50 4.5 8-1
2 2 Majestic Day 6.00 5 10-1
5 5 Dark Wood (IRE) 12.00 5 10-1
6 6 Ugo 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ruffolo 10.00 2.9 5-1
7 4 And Won 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 5 Hannity 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Bourbon Tan 8.00 5.9 11-1
9 6 Stock Trade 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Broth 8.00 6 11-1
10 7 Hardly a Secret 4.50 8.6 16-1
4 4 Duchossois 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Jimmy D 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Honest to Goodness 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.