May 14, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Honey Mug | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Foot Rub Love | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hoosier Gold Case | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Seventeen | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bobbie too Too | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lillet | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch Flyer | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dabo | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devileye | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Richiesgotswagger | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wile E Peyote | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | What’s Up Dude | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bulldog of Bergen | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Richiesinthehouse | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sunflower Road | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grapevine | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Couger | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zawadi | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Global Monopoly | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brest Fortress | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hot N Sweet | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Packed House | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lead Star | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Carte Blanche | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Hero | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bora Bora | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chicks for Free | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic John’s | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shell Fire | 1.80 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Diamond Dave | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Three Amigos (FR) | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ringintheyear | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pitaman | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Skip the Smalltalk | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Story | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Captain Fantastic | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smart Trial | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Agave Kid | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Special Pryce | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Caroline’s Story | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smack | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Stopshoppingamy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Ruler | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Storm | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Shez Stuck Up | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretti Xtreme | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Say Cheese | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dawn’s Dancer | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Kick | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Betwithbothhands | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lykan | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Star of Kodiak | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Assault | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Faraway Kitten | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Real Story | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Frontana | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Day in the Country | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Red Hot Devil | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Uncle Earl | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sand Mountain | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Radiant Castle | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Battle N Away | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Demand Ransom | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dark Ninja | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Talis Park Grad | 4.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacra Hoxen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.