Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 13, 2021

May 13, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ununderstandable 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Louemma 4.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Shades of Truth 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Double Dare You 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Ready N Waiting 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Grimhilde 5.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Thea Bee 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Tizplenty 2.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Burrow Down 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 2 Topsy Turvy 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Ontheonesandtwos 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 6 Pout 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Green Up 20.00 7.5 14-1
1A 9 Christmas 8.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Anna and Mia 1.80 SCRATCH
6 6 Dunvegan Doll 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cornbread Hill 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 Hard Sting 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Shanghai’s Dream 3.50 2.9 5-1
8 7 Davidic Line 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Funny Bone 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Catipari 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 6 Nip N Tuck 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Mr. Walsh 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 5 Win Worthy 5.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Dolder Grand 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Eyes On Target 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Nineeleventurbo 2.50 3.4 6-1
5 4 Sailor’s Return 8.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Dance Some Mo 8.00 5 10-1
10 10 Cochise 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Incitatus 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Jimmy Dan 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Tiger Shark 30.00 9.5 18-1
1A 12 Project Thunder 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Do Your Best 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Sacred Oath 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 1 Frolic More 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Energizer 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 4 Moonoverthebayou 4.00 2.9 6-1
4 3 Hombrazo 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Fevola 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Major Attraction 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Spin Rate 3.50 3 6-1
9 7 Tamanrassett 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 6 Tiz Light the Way 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 5 Double Tough Tiger 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Highest Mandate 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 1 Language Barrier 8.00 4.5 8-1
10 8 Day Trip 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 She Love Me 15.00 7.2 14-1
11 9 Magic Carpet 20.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Crown the Prince 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hot Traffic 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Belichick 2.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Basquiat 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 News Break 5.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Scarlet Fusion 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Nathan Detroit 10.00 4 8-1
3 2 Blue Cat 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Falkirk 3.50 5 9-1
2 1 Manitowish 20.00 6.1 11-1
1 12 Money for Mischief 8.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Gigging 8.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Coach Bahe 4.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Turnagain Tide 2.50 SCRATCH
10 9 Roughin the City 50.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Frozay All Day 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Souper Capacity 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Lady Protonico 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Life of Saturdays 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Sunset At Mallory 12.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Zebra Cake 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Stanchion 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Perk the Gents Up 50.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Vida Yellow 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.