May 9, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tinderella | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hypnotising | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drama Run | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil B Quick | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready to Charm | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Can She Scoot | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Tommy Lee | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hoodwink | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Share My Moon | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Wandaful | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cesso | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Joan’s Way | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colorofacloud | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tango City | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | War Colors | 4.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Out Ona Limb | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | America’s Queen | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New Rules | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Me too Mo | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rare Action Attack | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Atlantic | 2.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ozette | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Glitterary | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bruce’s Girl | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maid of Honor | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Let’s Skedaddle | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Diva | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nurse Sadie | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ready At Midnight | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bird Key | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vegas Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Julio Tutwiler | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maga Country | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | White Mist | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Powerful Man | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Day | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket Ride | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pocho’s Dream | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ballybrack Lass | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Unburnt | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bow Down Tewmey | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Princesa Blanca | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Halo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Polar’s Grace | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blueyed Princess | 3.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risky Risky Risky | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emily Bug | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cowboys Dream | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rayo de Luz | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pistol Box | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gemo Rain | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Inclusive | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tornado Boy | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Z U Soon | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beast Mode | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tightrope | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mystery Man | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Derby City | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Midnight Blue Note | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good One | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Huey Attack | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Land Mark Deal | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | J Z’s Last Try | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Punk | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bokermin | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Omar Attack | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Easter Music | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Trappe Valley | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Will Knows | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.