May 8, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stay Home | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Lucky | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Can’t Say No | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fair Challenge | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostly Who | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Glory Road | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sermononthemount | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strike Me Down | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eskenforit | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Deal | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eastside Cool | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cuzzywuzzy | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Suki | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Workout | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Take Charge Patti | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Callie’s Candy | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Family Time | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Runaway Mom | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Madam Pie | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Some Nights | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cha Cha Mission | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honor and Justice | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Forever Home | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zawadi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Red Bee | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Prinecess Doir | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Plants and Birds | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fay Dan | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rogue Element | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Enid | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Poirier | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Intentional Walk | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tiz the Journey | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | El Franco | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Master of War | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Chione | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Altered Shot | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fine Cotton | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Christmas Poem | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chastain | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bahia Girl | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lil Town Sis | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Notreallynotreally | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laynlomakndough | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Perhaps Tonight (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mint Edition | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curly Wurly | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fayette Blue | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Conchita | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Badger Kitten | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Maybe Later | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ballymore Star (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Sweet Story | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Transient (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Look Me Over | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Aby B | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Himiko | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Avie’s Samurai | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rising Seas | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | On the Town | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Goodbye Earl | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 11 | World Tour | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Director’s Cut | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Flown | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mischevious Mel | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gam’s Mission | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Munnyfor Ro | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Office Party | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Viburnum | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Go Big Green | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Mused (GB) | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Marlborough Road (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gote Go | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girl’s On Fire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Core Values | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Crystal Ball | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Market Rumor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Singita Dreams | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fire Coral | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Funnybet | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alta’s Award | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Microcap | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Figure It Out | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bye Bye Bertie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Luna Fortis | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mamzelle Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Goin’ Good | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wink | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Amanzi Yimpilo (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New Boss | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Lady Edith | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Navratilova | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Inajiffy | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Music City Star | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Mamba | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Threatlevelmidnite (GB) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Founder’s Day | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heart Full of Soul | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Love Enough | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sofia Strong | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Village Queen | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mending | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Muchacha | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Laura’s Angle | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gem Key | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brooklynn’s Dabomb | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Grey C | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.