May 8, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Magic Man’s Touch | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Greenspan | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chapel Barn | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Victor’s Way | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Venetian Dream | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oncewewerebrothers | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Hero | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Crankshaft | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Renegade Bob | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Halo Hunter | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Sport | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Major Wager | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Commission | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Liberal Lunacy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | President Elect | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Follow the Signs | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He’s Meant to Be | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Diddley | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bexar | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Maresonofagun | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lastfortinofamily | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baroque | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Quarters | 1.60 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | You’re in Corey | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tres Generaciones | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tuff Attack | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Z U Soon | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Coming Up Aces | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Hide the Demon | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cyril’s Boy | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | O’Keeffe | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wellabled | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mark of the Z | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Colonel Klink | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star of Kodiak | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wile E Peyote | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Get Hammered | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Worththemoney | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Outrider | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | King Tito | 12.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Arbat | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | A Bold Ryde | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wave’ndumoni | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rag Tag | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Tuff | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mommas Boy Otis | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Russian Alphabet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lowcountry | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Last Option | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Half Cocked | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | El Fefo | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zarmae | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Feuilleton | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mango Tree | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delft Blue | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Final Call | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cosmic Treasure | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | King’s Story | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Fudge Brownie | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Stormy Empire | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pythoness | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Good Mongolia | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Cora | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddy’s Boo | 1.80 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sensible Myth | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fate Factor | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | White Lies | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Slime Queen | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Judy’s Way | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | River Evangelist | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | P H Factor | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Half of Manhattan | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Blitz | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fleetway | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Antrim’s Giant | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Landofthepharaohs | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of the Nile | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perfectly Majestic | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Humongous One | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mongol Bull | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.