May 6, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Patriot | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Can Imagine | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jettin Out | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Clean Fun | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baquero Flies | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kolten’s Court | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Golden Spoke | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brother Aaron | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pilot Prince | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maximum Risk | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Devilinthebottle | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Harrison’s Rose | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strikeitortapit | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Puddle Jumper | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Searing Chase | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Loopallu | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spycraft | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thrill Ride | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tango Charlie | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joyful Heart | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cold as Hell | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stage Left | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Teller to Sing | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Out of Pocket | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Solemn Oath | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wrinkles Your Nose | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Lucy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Dame | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smarty Artie | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Keep Scrolling | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gray Nay | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Well Done West | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Warrior in Chief | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Jostar | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Can’tbetemall | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Don’tshowweakness | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Two Princes | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Appraisal | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bump | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cecile’s Chapter | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thunder Buggy | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gold for Kitten | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lazy Summer Day | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Anotation | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dramatizer | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Princess d’Oro | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seaward | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yogurt | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hypernova | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Seascape | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Legendary Gift | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Pettigo Girl | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gigi B. | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Coupon | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | She’s a Deal | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Let’s Celebrate | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lovemesomeme | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Temper Mint Twist | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Attorney Tim | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Absam | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Toma Todo | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tulfarris (GB) | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cibolian | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beachwalker | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hellorhighwater | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Rye Time | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Crown the Prince | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oceans Map | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.