Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 6, 2021

May 6, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Up Seventyfour 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Lucky Sitka 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Tap the Barrel 4.50 3.4 6-1
6 5 Overdressed 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Dramatic Twist 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Bustinmygroove 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Captivating Gal 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Big City Momma 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Artyistheparty 12.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Bella Sofia 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Steal My Sunshine 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Back Channel 0.80 2.8 5-1
4 4 Ms. Gucci Girl 50.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Great Workout 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Tiergan 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Our Man Mike 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Too Early 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Bingo John 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 No Lime 10.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Macy’s Home Run 4.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Riding On a Winner 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Miss Alex 1.80 2.3 4-1
7 7 Tiny Magoo 2.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Mia Calia 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 After the Wire 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Jordy Can Tap 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Madame Rose 30.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Dangerous Edge 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Advance Notice 1.20 2.7 5-1
1 1 Moonlight Now 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 5 Millean 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 My First Grammy 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Brazillionaire 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Deputy Flag 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Connagh’s Quay 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Prayer Book 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Snow’s Island 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Royale 3.00 3.5 7-1
10 9 Proven Innocent 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Gold Bear 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Summer Silence 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Houdini’s Awesome 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Tiz Tact Toe 15.00 6.6 13-1
11 10 Wicked Grinch 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 I Am the Law 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Baby Boss 1.60 2.1 4-1
7 6 Ifihadachance 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Midtown Rose 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Dublinornothin 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Violent Trick 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Awesome Alana 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Movie Score 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Madera 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Violent Point 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 3 Silky Blue 1.60 2.7 5-1
7 6 Purrageous Dyna 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Screamin’ By 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 The Important One 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Impazible Donna 8.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Dancingwthdaffodls 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Fight On Lucy 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Zerenia 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 7 Corey Scores 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Day’s Humor 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Ava K’s Girl 8.00 4.4 8-1
11 8 Towering Gaze 4.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Quasar 12.00 5.9 11-1
12 9 Appreciate 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 2 Hey It’s Tati 20.00 7.9 15-1
6 5 Magical Romance 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 High School Crush 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Master of Hope 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Beautiful Karen 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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