May 1, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cool Bobby | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sounion | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ekati’s Verve | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Money for Mischief | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Soros | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Randello | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ram | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Striking a Pose | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Huge Bigly | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Santos Dumont | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cadencia | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | The Ginger Queen (IRE) | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Elle Est Forte | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Soma | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Texas Shuffle | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alydiva | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cerulean | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surrealist | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flying Gem | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Robin’s Fantasy | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Demodog | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Big Bee | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Colonel Aby B | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Pearl Girl | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Anthropology | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cash Rocket | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Koolhaus | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alejandro | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Extreme | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Alexander Valley | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Reward Night | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Centrifuge | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Atoka | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rare Stripe | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vail of Honor | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harvard | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Salvator Mundi | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Invader | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oak Hill | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Gear Jockey | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hay Dakota | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | First Premio | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gun It | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Vintage Print | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Street Ready | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bizzee Channel | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Holiday Stone | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eddy Forever | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bodecream | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Super Sol | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Joyful Heart | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hop Kat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Ghazaaly | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Masqueparade | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Last Samurai | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Southern Passage | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Smiley Sobotka | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Regular Guy | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Perfect Cut | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Quantum Leap | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Scales of Justice | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drop Anchor | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Who Took the Money | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Got Stormy | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zofelle (IRE) | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blowout (GB) | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | New York Girl (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | She’s Got You (GB) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Abscond | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jakarta | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gamine | 0.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sconsin | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bell’s the One | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hibiscus Punch | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unique Factor | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Estilo Talentoso | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg&e And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Jackie’s Warrior | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Defunded | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Starrininmydreams | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dream Shake | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Prevalence | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Joe Frazier | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Whiskey Double | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Noble Reflection | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dreamer’s Disease | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sittin On Go | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Two Zone | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ultimate Badger | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Derby City Gaming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Du Jour | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Annex | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Scarlett Sky | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Winfromwithin | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Excellent Timing | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Lucky Law (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Prince | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Palazzi | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chess’s Dream | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dyn O Mite | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Next | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Holy Vow | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Barrister Tom | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flagstaff | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whitmore | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Basin | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mind Control | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tap It to Win | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shashashakemeup | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Endorsed | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Phat Man | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hog Creek Hustle | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Get the Prize | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bango | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Attachment Rate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Lexitonian | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Liam | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Domestic Spending (GB) | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smooth Like Strait | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ride a Comet | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ivar (BRZ) | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Digital Age (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Count Again | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cross Border | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Masteroffoxhounds | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Essential Quality | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Rock Your World | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Known Agenda | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 17 | 16 | Highly Motivated | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hot Rod Charlie | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mandaloun | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Medina Spirit | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dynamic One | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Bourbon | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | O Besos | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 20 | 19 | Bourbonic | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 18 | 17 | Super Stock | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 19 | 18 | Soup and Sandwich | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | King Fury | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Brooklyn Strong | 50.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sainthood | 50.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Like the King | 50.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keepmeinmind | 50.00 | 14 | 27-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Helium | 50.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hidden Stash | 50.00 | 16.2 | 31-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Prime Factor | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Calibrate | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | One Fast Cat | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tulane Tryst | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wora | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Ovation | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Supremacy | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colonel Bowman | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | A C Expressway | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Shadow Matter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Triple Tap | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Santa Cruiser | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr Sippi | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Hepo | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Annoying | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | K C Rocket | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bagboss | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Global Appeal | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gun Lap | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Curlin Lane | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fu Pegchu | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | King’s Mischief | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.