May 1, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Anzio Beach | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Spitball | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Apex Predator | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wardenofthenorth | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joint and Several | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Future Book | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our American Star | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gratto Swing | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Fidget | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Have a Heart | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Perceived | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Il Primo Sole (GB) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Montauk Daddy | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | The Right Path | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Yes and Yes | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Artemus Citylimits | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Merchants of Cool | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dubai Bobby | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Slippin Jimmy | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mission Wrapitup | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deputy Flag | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Westchester S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Buff | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dr Post | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Limonite | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Backsideofthemoon | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Top Seed | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Trick | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Sky | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Olympique | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jumpster | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hot Doctor | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Scotto | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Forgotten Mission | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dutchmen Forever | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Second Fortune | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Whats in It for Me | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Production Credit | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Simbasalltrouble | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mighty Wind | 30.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Fort Marcy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tribhuvan (FR) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Devamani (FR) | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wissahickon | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | City Man | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Playwright | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Hardcore Folklore | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Frankie Barone | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Deep Sea | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Indian Gulch | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Direct Order | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | King of American | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Real Dan | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Bill | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Colonel Juan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | War Terminator | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Albie | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Scotty Brown | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rift Valley | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chrome Dixie | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Horn of Plenty | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quickflash | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bad Guy | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Swashbuckle | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Our Troubadour | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jacks American Pie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ninth Hour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Schokolade | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Royal Suspect | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Dangerous Edge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Crowding Out | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wild America | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Quick Conversation | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gailhorsewind | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Strafe | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Candy Jar | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Venus Oyzo | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Closertotheheart | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Misspotofgold | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mun Luv | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Patti D | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ryan’s Cat | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Three Technique | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Secret Rules | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pete’s Play Call | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Montauk Traffic | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Free Enterprise | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yodel E. A. Who | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jemography | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Meru | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amundson | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Sheepshead Bay S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Sister Nat (FR) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Always Shopping | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mutamakina (GB) | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Orglandes (FR) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magic Attitude (GB) | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Antoinette | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Exfiltration | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kiss and Run | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bella Principessa | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Escapology | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bewps | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Freedom Machine | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Adriatic Rose | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Theatrical Dancer | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emma and I | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elegant Laoban | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Bellamy’spartygirl | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lemon Taffy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Saigon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tonilee | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.