April 30, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Atomic Drop | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tallemark | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Warrens Candy Man | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskey Talk | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Funkenstein | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rocks and Salt | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Shady | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Drizella | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Swanning | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Precious Insight | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Preskitt | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Treat | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Paynter’s Love | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flag Salute | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Best of Show | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dynamite Queen | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sugar Kisses | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Circle of Honor | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Curious Inji | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Molokini | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kleen Karma | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cassie Belle | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colombian Gold | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | So Much Happy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A New Peace | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cover Version | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sir Flatter | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Exalted Joy | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Papale | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Theultimatepraise | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roadside | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mongolian Ford | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Big Coupe | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beaudacious | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Henchman | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Star | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Circleofchampions | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Flint | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fly Buddy Fly | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Jamboree | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paige Runner | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diva in Charge | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True Mischief | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s a Dime | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fantasy Game | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Armour Plate | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Deuce | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Mystery | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hartel | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Juggles | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Antithetical | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Severin | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.