April 30, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Big Al’s Gal | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Empress Luciana | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Charlotte Webley | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Tourrista | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Hey It’s Tati | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Remoane | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gilda Marie | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Scaterra | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gagliano | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Durkin’s Call | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sicilia Mike | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Daddy Knows | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Blindwillie McTell | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Financialstability | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Big Mountain | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Runaway Lute | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kosciuszko | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Latin Love Bug | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Flat Out S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Musical Heart | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rocketry | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Air Attack | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Zoomer | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ajaaweed | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Irish Cork | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burning Bright | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Rally Squirrel | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bielefeld | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Easy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Devilish Mood | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Humpday | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brew Pub | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | King Moonracer | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lord Flintshire | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ringgood | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Breaking Stones | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Got the Gold | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wicked Karma | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Grinch | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eight Weeks Long | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Scotto | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Reunion Tour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Moana’s Tale | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Kept Waiting | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Time Lady | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Out First | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Honey Money | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holmdel Park | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kinky Sox | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | She’s an Alpha | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vitanza | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ifihadachance | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Chasing Cara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sky Kitten | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ok Honey | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Cali Fitz | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irresistible Girl | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dorothy’s the Boss | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | A Bit o’Irish Sass | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vivazano | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | U Guys Are No Fun | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tellaperfecttale | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dom’s Feisty Girl | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Steppin’ Hawk | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Calibogue Sound | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Liveyourbeastlife | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Per Capita | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Highest Honors | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musical America | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Creed | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Doubly Blessed | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Locally Owned | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Backsideofthemoon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Minaun (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fetching | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magical Soul | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Union Gables | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Festina Plente (GB) | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lexinator | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rivendell | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Madera | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Glamorous Thunder | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Stunning Munnings | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Glass Ceiling | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – License Fee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Sweet Melania | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Lawyer | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s My Type (FR) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jakarta | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flower Point | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Robin Sparkles | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Caravel | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Introduced | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’llhandalthecash | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Mischief | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sadie Lady | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.